A Million People Displaced from Gaza & more–17th Oct 2023

Saluton from Tibidabo! This is Rorshok Multilateral Update from the 17th of October twenty twenty-three A summary of what's going down in the world's major multilateral institutions

According to the United Nations agency aiding Palestinian refugees, about one million individuals have been forced to leave their homes during the initial week of the Gaza conflict.

The conflict began with a deadly attack by Hamas on southern Israel, with members of the organization landing on Israeli ground with paragliders, while others broke parts of the Gaza wall reaching nearby towns. At least 1,300 people were killed, resulting in Israeli airstrikes targeting Hamas operatives and infrastructure in Gaza. These strikes have led to the deaths of over 2,300 individuals within the Gaza Strip.

The UN Security Council members got together to discuss the conflict. However, they failed to reach unanimity, which the council needs to release a statement.

In the financial toll of the conflict, the International Energy Agency (or IEA) highlighted the oil market's apprehension following the recent Hamas attack on Israel, emphasizing the uncertainties and potential geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

While the physical oil supply remains unaffected, the IEA cautioned that ongoing tensions could impact the region's oil flows, maintaining a heightened focus on the situation.

Despite the increased risks, the IEA adjusted its twenty twenty-three oil demand growth estimate to 2.3 million barrels per day (or, bpd), slightly up from the previous projection. However, the agency revised its twenty twenty-four demand growth estimate downward by about 100,000 bpd, citing expectations of economic slowdowns and improved energy efficiency influencing oil consumption. The IEA anticipates a slower global oil demand growth of 900,000 bpd in twenty twenty-four due to these factors.

From the Middle East to a powder keg located in another part of the world… Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary-General, stated that if the damage to the Balticconnector gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia is found to be a deliberate attack on critical NATO infrastructure, the organization would respond resolutely. The pipeline was closed following a suspected leak, and official confirmation of the damage came from Finland, which estimated that repairs would take over five months.

Speculation regarding potential Russian sabotage has intensified after remarks from the chief inspector of Finland's National Bureau of Investigation suggested the involvement of an external force causing mechanical damage to the pipeline. While marks on the seabed have been discovered, the investigation is still in its early stages, with adverse weather conditions delaying a definitive conclusion.

The possibility of a large ship or tanker accidentally interfering with the pipeline has been proposed, with Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur noting that the damage was likely due to a significant external force.

If you found this story really interesting and want to know more, head over to the Rorshok Ocean Update! Link in the show notes!

Speaking of Russia, Moscow’s attempt to regain its seat on the United Nations Human Rights Council was unsuccessful, as it failed to secure enough votes in the General Assembly on Tuesday the 10th. Competing with Albania and Bulgaria for the two open eastern European seats, Russia received only eighty-three votes, while Bulgaria and Albania garnered 160 and 123 votes, respectively.

Russia's previous expulsion from the council occurred in April twenty twenty-two, following its invasion of Ukraine.

Numerous reports have documented human rights abuses committed by Russia during its conflict with Ukraine, including civilian killings, shelling of non-military areas, torture, sexual violence, and the abduction of children. A joint report by the U.N. Watch, the Human Rights Foundation, and the Raoul Wallenberg Center for Human Rights highlighted Russia's lack of qualifications for Human Rights Council membership.

Moving on to Africa, Mohamed El-Amine Souef, leading the African Union Mission in Somalia, stressed the need for international aid to equip Somali forces battling al-Shabab. He urged lifting the arms embargo, citing parallels with U.S. aid to Israel during the recent conflict. Souef confirmed a three-month troop withdrawal pause and discussed plans for enhanced mobility with incoming helicopters. Kamal Dahir Hassan Gutale, the Somali government's national security adviser, expressed confidence in the country's ability to assume security duties after the pause, emphasizing significant progress in training and territorial liberation from al-Shabab.

On the west coast of the African continent, the Economic Community of West African States (or ECOWAS) Observation Mission has called for patience and calm following Liberia's twenty twenty-three general elections, urging all stakeholders to await the official announcement of the results

While the polling process was generally smooth, with some reported skirmishes between supporters of political parties, the Mission highlighted challenges related to infrastructure affecting the election process. It encouraged the government to address these issues and recommended potential reforms to alleviate congestion at polling precincts.

Led by Professor Attahiru Jega, the Mission served as a vital observation mechanism, monitoring critical phases before, during, and after the elections to ensure adherence to legal frameworks and international standards.

Venezuelan authorities have issued an arrest warrant for opposition leader Juan Guaido, alleging various crimes including treason and money laundering, and have sought Interpol's assistance for his capture. Guaido, living in exile in the United States, is accused of misusing resources from the public oil giant PDVSA, causing losses of over $19 billion dollars. The government has initiated twenty-seven investigations against him, with this being the first attempt to arrest him. Guaido, who declared himself interim president in twenty nineteen, garnered international support but failed to dislodge President Nicolas Maduro. Maduro's regime has attributed the country's economic downturn to US sanctions, while Guaido has labeled the recent charges as a ploy to suppress the Venezuelan opposition.

Speaking of suppressed opposition, the Council of Europe awarded its prestigious Václav Havel prize to imprisoned Turkish philanthropist Osman Kavala, drawing a sharp rebuke from Ankara. Kavala, currently serving a life sentence, has faced a series of allegations, including a coup attempt against President Erdoğan in twenty sixteen. His wife, accepting the award on his behalf, expressed sadness over his absence, reading a letter in which Kavala dedicated the prize to unlawfully incarcerated citizens. While the Council of Europe highlighted Kavala's significant contributions to civil society, Turkey denounced the decision, asserting it as an attempt to politicize the law. The European body has initiated infringement proceedings against Turkey, underscoring the deepening concerns about the country's human rights record and its strained relations with the West.

The World Wildlife Fund (or WWF) has urged a multinational group on Antarctic conservation to break a longstanding deadlock and establish new marine reserves in response to record-low sea-ice levels. The Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources will discuss this issue during upcoming meetings. Proposed protected areas, previously blocked by China and Russia, aim to safeguard vital habitats for vulnerable species. The WWF emphasized the urgent need for action, highlighting the "catastrophic breeding failure" of emperor penguins due to the collapsing sea ice.

The International Monetary Fund (or IMF) has confirmed that its member states have agreed to increase their contributions to the organization. In addition, the IMF has pledged to allot Africa a third seat on its Executive Board. Nadia Calvino, Chair of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, emphasized the necessity of supporting sustainable growth, climate action, and poverty reduction measures. While the redistribution of quotas remains unchanged, the IMF has agreed to expand its Board to twenty-five members, granting Africa an additional seat.

And that’s it for this week! Thank you for joining us!

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