ASEAN’s Different Approaches to Myanmar’s Situation & more– 1st Aug 2023

Saluton from Tibidabo! This is Rorshok Multilateral Update from the 1st of August twenty twenty-three A summary of what's going down in the world's major multilateral institutions

In a bilateral meeting on Wednesday the 26th of July, Malaysia and the Philippines talked about giving Association of Southeast Asian Nations (or ASEAN) member states more “leeway” in handling the post-coup situation in Myanmar.

The issue of dealing with the repressive junta has divided ASEAN, after Thailand engaged with the military junta on various occasions.

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. talked about strengthening ASEAN's five-point consensus on Myanmar while allowing room for neighboring countries to engage informally.

The five-point consensus, agreed upon by ASEAN members in Jakarta in twenty twenty-one, included provisions for an immediate end to violence, dialogue among all parties, the appointment of a special envoy, ASEAN humanitarian assistance and a visit by the regional bloc's special envoy to Myanmar to meet with all parties.

However, Anwar emphasized that human rights and the treatment of minorities should not be compromised.

Anwar's suggestion of engaging in dialogue with the military marks a change in Malaysia's position and may open up alternative approaches to address the situation.

Still, analysts warn of potential risks in granting legitimacy to the junta through informal engagements.

Moving on to the Caucasus region, according to local Armenian leaders, the transfer of critically ill patients from Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia has been put on hold, after Azerbaijani forces arrested a Red Cross traveler on war crimes allegations.

As a consequence, all medical evacuations from the region have been indefinitely suspended.

Nagorno-Karabakh has been under the de facto control of its ethnic Armenian population, and it is hard to access because the Lachin Corridor is the only way in or out.

While the corridor is meant to be guarded by Russian peacekeepers per a cease-fire agreement, their reduced presence and Azerbaijan's restrictions have complicated matters.

Efforts by the international community to urge Azerbaijan to reopen the Lachin Corridor have faced resistance from the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry, which says there is a misinterpretation of the February International Court of Justice's decision that ruled the opening of the passage.

Baku counterproposed supplying Nagorno-Karabakh from within its own territory—a proposal local Armenian leaders rejected.

Moving on to Ukraine, the International Atomic Energy Agency (or IAEA) reported on Tuesday the 25th of July the discovery of Russian anti-personnel mines at Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

The mines were found in a restricted area between the external and internal perimeter barriers, away from the plant's core facilities but still in violation of IAEA safety standards.

This marks the second consecutive month that the IAEA has raised the issue with the plant's Russian occupiers.

Although the plant's staff assessed that any detonation would not directly affect safety and security, the presence of mines on-site could cause psychological pressure on its workers.

The Zaporizhzhia plant has been under Russian military control since its invasion of Ukraine in twenty twenty-two. However, its workers are Ukranian.

In other news from the Ukrainian front, Russian suicide drones targeted the towns of Reni and Izmail on the Danube River, causing explosions and gunfire, on Monday the 24th of July.

The attack injured seven people and destroyed warehouses used for shipping Ukrainian grain to impoverished nations, fueling concerns about a global food shortage.

However, the more chilling aspect of the attack was its proximity to NATO territory, with Romania, a NATO member, situated just across the Danube.

This incident marked the closest Russia has come to striking a NATO member, raising fears of a potential confrontation between major world powers.

The incident has escalated tensions, highlighting the need for careful monitoring of Russia’s actions in the face of such threats to global stability.

Now, let’s talk about Africa.

After the recent coup in Niger, the African Union (or AU) held a meeting on Friday the 28th of July. The AU has given the military junta in Niger a fifteen-day ultimatum to restore the democratically elected government.

The African Union Peace and Security Council expressed concern over the rise of coups undermining democracy in the continent and demanded the soldiers return to their barracks and reinstate constitutional authority within fifteen days.

Failure to comply could result in punitive measures against the perpetrators. Now, the public and the media believe that General Abdourahmane 'Omar' Tchiani, the junta leader, is close to former president Mahamadou Issoufou, sparking speculation about his involvement in the coup.

The United States threatened to halt economic support, and the European Union suspended budgetary and security assistance to Niger.

The situation could exacerbate hardship in the region and impact international relations with West Africa.

In another type of war, that one against climate change, G20 climate ministers faced criticism from the European Union as they failed to make progress on key climate issues during talks in Chennai, on Friday the 28th of July.

July is on track to be the hottest month ever recorded, adding urgency to the discussions.

However, there was no consensus on transitioning away from fossil fuels, leading to disappointment in the EU.

Setting global goals for renewable energy deployment and phasing down fossil fuels were among the unresolved issues.

The G20 published an incomplete outcome document and a chair's summary due to the split among the ministers—the ones in favor of green energy and the ones in favor of fossil fuels.

The EU praised the focus on fighting plastic pollution and deforestation but expressed frustration at the lack of action on climate.

The spotlight now turns to the G20 leaders' summit in September.

Keeping up with environmental issues, according to the International Energy Agency (or IEA), coal consumption reached a record high in twenty twenty-two at 8.3 billion tonnes.

The IEA's mid-year Coal Market Update reveals that this year, coal-fired power generation may see small declines but there will be rises in industrial coal use to compensate.

In the first half of twenty twenty-three, global coal demand increased by about 1.5%, with China and India's demand growing over 5% while the US and the European Union saw declines of 24% and 16%, respectively.

China and India account for nearly 70% of global coal consumption in twenty twenty-three, while the US and the European Union account for just 10%.

The International Monetary Fund (or IMF) has reached a staff-level agreement with Argentina to unlock approximately 7.5 billion dollars and complete the fifth and sixth reviews of the country's 44 billion dollar loan program.

The agreement comes as Argentina faces a challenging economic environment due to a devastating drought, which has caused some financial targets to be missed. The agreement expects a decrease of import demand with “new foreign exchange taxes for imported goods” and asks for the strengthening of expenditure controls.

However, the fiscal deficit target for twenty twenty-three remains unchanged at almost 2% of the GDP.

The IMF Executive Board still has to approve the agreement, and the next review will take place in November, a month earlier than originally planned.

Law enforcement from multiple European countries, with support from Europol and INTERPOL, dismantled a criminal network smuggling Cuban migrants to the European Union.

The investigation led to sixty-two arrests, including twenty-five Cuban nationals and officials involved in the network.

The criminals used a messaging app to advertise their services to vulnerable Cuban customers, charging around nine thousand euros for the illegal journey, which involved flying migrants to Serbia and then smuggling them to Greece and Spain.

Reportedly, the network smuggled around five thousand Cuban nationals, making a profit of about forty-five million euros.

The operation exposed a complex criminal infrastructure in Spain, Greece, and Serbia.

Aaaaand that’s it for this week! Thanks for joining us!

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