COP28 & more – 5th Dec 2023

Saluton from BA! This is Rorshok Multilateral Update from the 5th of December twenty twenty-three A summary of what's going down in the world's major multilateral institutions.

On Friday the 1st of December, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged world leaders at the COP28 climate summit to stop burning all fossil fuels to curb global warming. This statement came after COP28 president Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber proposed continuing the use of fossil fuels, highlighting divisions at the summit. King Charles III of Britain urged progress in the global climate agenda and emphasized the need to restore nature's balance. Narendra Modi, India’s Prime Minister, criticized wealthy countries for their historical emissions. Additionally, Hilda Heine, former Marshall Islands President, resigned from the COP28 advisory board, protesting against the United Arab Emirates’ alleged support for fossil fuels. While some leaders criticized Israel's actions in Gaza in their speeches, technical committees worked on assessing progress toward meeting climate targets, including options to phase down or phase out fossil fuels.

In the same summit, António Guterres and Moussa Faki Mahamat, the African Union (or AU) Commission Chairperson, signed a deal in New York, reinforcing the partnership between the United Nations and the AU. Guterres emphasized the need for justice in international relations, acknowledging Africa's historical and present injustices related to colonialism, slavery, and global power dynamics. Faki highlighted Africa's challenges, including terrorism, extremism, economic turmoils, and climate change. Both leaders attended the COP28 climate conference, advocating for Africa, which faces climate change impacts despite low emissions. Guterres also called for support for AU-led peace and counterterrorism operations in the continent.

On to another important COP28 statement, Kristalina Georgieva, the International Monetary Fund (or IMF) Managing Director, emphasized the importance of carbon pricing, highlighting its effectiveness in prompting polluters to reduce emissions. She advocates for this strategy as it assigns a tangible cost to greenhouse gas emissions, considered the most efficient method to reduce pollution. Recently, the IMF increased its carbon price prediction to $85 dollars per ton by twenty thirty, a significant rise from the current average of $20 dollars. Georgieva emphasized the need to replace fossil fuel subsidies with incentives for clean energy. She noted that carbon pricing is fair, as it charges more for higher emissions and can generate significant revenue, like the EU's Emissions Trading System, which brought in 175 billion euros. Georgieva also addressed the oil and gas industry's role, observing a shift towards renewables and diversified investments away from fossil fuels.

In the Middle East, the International Criminal Court (or ICC) is currently investigating possible crimes by both Hamas militants and Israeli forces following the conflict that began on the 7th of October. Karim Khan, the ICC Prosecutor, has described the attacks on innocent Israeli civilians as some of the most serious international crimes that the ICC had to address. Recall that the ICC operates as a court of last resort when local courts cannot or will not take action, and Israel does not recognize its jurisdiction.

Moving on to Africa, relatives of Niger's deposed President Mohamed Bazoum have expressed concern over his well-being and lack of communication since his thwarted escape attempt in October. President Bazoum, who has been restricted to the presidential house since the coup on the 26th of July, tried to flee with his family and others via helicopter but the ruling faction stopped him. There have been calls both locally and internationally for his release. Niger is in a region that has witnessed several military coups in recent years. The Economic Community of West African States or ECOWAS has urged the coup leaders to restore President Bazoum to power. Diplomatic efforts continue amid economic sanctions and disagreements over the transition timeline, which stood at a dead-end several times this year. For instance, in August, the military junta proposed a three-year transition plan, which ECOWAS rejected. In October, the junta rejected a nine-month plan for restoring democratic mechanisms, proposed by neighboring Algeria.

In South America, in Venezuela’s referendum, 95% of the votes favored the annexation of Essequibo despite the International Court of Justice (or ICJ) ordering Venezuela not to interfere with the disputed region, which Guyana administers. On a side note, the court did not explicitly direct Venezuela to halt its consultative referendum on whether the region should become a Venezuelan state. The disputed region was awarded to former British colony Guyana in eighteen ninety-nine following international arbitration which was largely in favor of the United Kingdom. The land in dispute is oil-rich, and the situation has been a long-standing source of tension.

Talking about territorial challenges and their consequences, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (or ZNPP), Europe's largest nuclear power plant, lost connection to its primary off-site power source on Friday the 1st of December, leaving it dependent on backup power for reactor cooling amid the ongoing military conflict. Rockets were reportedly launched near the plant, heightening concerns about security and the vulnerability of off-site power sources. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has voiced deep concern and urged all parties to respect safety measures. The situation underscores the need for urgent collaborative efforts to ensure nuclear safety at the ZNPP, as failure to maintain a secure operational environment could have disastrous consequences, not only for Ukraine but neighboring countries as well. Efforts are underway to stabilize power supply and address backup power system issues. Despite challenges, the ZNPP staff is working diligently to maintain safety and communicate with regulatory bodies during the conflict. Ukraine said that the damage to the two power lines connecting its electricity grid to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant put the plant at risk of an accident.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations or ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn expressed the bloc's interest in having India join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (or RCEP), highlighting the potential benefits for both India and ASEAN member countries. The RCEP is a significant free trade agreement that includes ten ASEAN members and five of its dialogue partners. India had previously opted out of the RCEP due to concerns about its economic impact. Kao Kim Hourn also emphasized the diverse areas of cooperation between India and ASEAN, including biotech, public health, and renewable energy. He stressed the importance of the ASEAN-India partnership and called for increased collaboration. Additionally, he discussed ASEAN's commitment to peace, dialogue, and diplomacy in resolving conflicts worldwide.

In the energy sector, The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries or OPEC has defended the oil and gas industry against criticisms from the International Energy Agency (or IEA) regarding its role in the climate catastrophe. OPEC accused the IEA of unfairly vilifying the industry and criticized the agency's use of social media to instruct the sector on climate actions. The OPEC argued that the oil industry is investing in renewables and emission-reduction technologies. The organization also expressed concerns about the IEA's framework to align company targets with net-zero goals, viewing it as an attempt to pressure oil-producing developing countries and their national oil companies. This dispute highlights the ongoing debate on how to address climate change while balancing energy security and economic interests.

And to close this edition, the European Union and Mercosur will not be able to conclude their free trade negotiations this week due to Argentina's incoming government needing to approve outstanding issues. Argentina elected right-wing libertarian Javier Milei as its new president and his government wants to review and possibly amend the trade deal. This delay means that the announcement of the final agreement will not happen at the annual presidential summit of the four-nation South American trade bloc, as originally planned. While Milei has criticized the trade deal, diplomats and trade experts do not expect his presidency to derail the agreement entirely. Diana Mondino, Argentina's incoming foreign minister, has expressed the importance of signing the EU-Mercosur accord.

Aaaaand that’s it for this week! Thanks for joining us!

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