MULTILATERAL: AI & more – 2nd July 2024

Saluton from BA! This is the Rorshok Multilateral Update from the 2nd of July twenty twenty-four. A summary of what's going down in the world's major multilateral institutions.

To kick things off, on Friday the 28th, an EU representative revealed that the European Union is ramping up its oversight of the AI industry, specifically revisiting Microsoft's substantial investment in OpenAI. The European Commission, the bloc's executive branch, began evaluating this partnership last year to check for any breaches of EU merger laws, but concluded that Microsoft did not gain control over OpenAI. Earlier this year, the commission queried major AI firms such as Microsoft, Google, Facebook, and TikTok, reviewed their feedback, and is now issuing a follow-up request concerning the Microsoft-OpenAI collaboration.

There are several significant concerns regarding the widespread prevalence of artificial intelligence. One major issue is the potential job displacement, as AI systems can perform tasks traditionally carried out by people, which could lead to significant unemployment. Additionally, there are fears that AI could be used for malicious purposes, like conducting surveillance or spreading misinformation, infringing on privacy and security. The possibility of AI systems making decisions that may not align with ethical standards raises further alarm.

Mocing on, on Tuesday the 25th, Zhovkva, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's foreign policy advisor, said that Ukraine is eagerly anticipating a decisive outcome from next month's NATO summit in Washington as it seeks to advance its goal of joining the alliance. Despite Zelenskiy's unsuccessful bid for a NATO invitation at last summer's summit, he remains adamant that this year's summit should secure an invitation for Ukraine. While Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s Secretary General, and U.S. officials have downplayed the likelihood of extending an invitation to Ukraine during the July summit, Stoltenberg expressed optimism about demonstrating Ukraine's progress toward membership.

A lot more is happening concerning Ukraine’s involvement in multilateral institutions: on Tuesday the 25th, the International Criminal Court, or ICC, issued arrest warrants for Russia’s former defense minister Sergei Shoigu and top general Valery Gerasimov, accusing them of committing crimes during Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This brings the total to eight arrest warrants issued against high-ranking Russian officials since the invasion began in February twenty twenty-two, including one for President Vladimir Putin regarding the forced relocation of Ukrainian children to Russia. While Kyiv welcomed this move, Moscow dismissed it as legally insignificant. The ICC suspects Shoigu and Gerasimov of war crimes and crimes against humanity, specifically for targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.

Lastly, on Sunday the 30th, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe passed a resolution that labels the Russian Federation's actions as genocide against Ukrainians and calls for the decolonization of Russia. The resolution condemns Russia's decade-long military aggression against Ukraine.

The organization’s labeling of Russia as a genocidal country potentially paves the way for more international legal action against Russia. The country could face further economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation.

Onto the United States, on Thursday the 27th, the Senate budget committee announced that it had launched an investigation into seventeen domestic oil producers, including Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips, over potential illegal price coordination with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC. The relationship between the United States and OPEC has been complex and often tense. The U.S. relies on OPEC countries for a significant portion of its oil imports, making it sensitive to OPEC's production decisions, which impact global oil prices. Historically, the U.S. has criticized OPEC's production cuts and pricing strategies, viewing them as manipulative and harmful to the global economy. However, the rise of shale oil production in the United States has lessened American dependence on OPEC oil in recent years.

In Africa, on Saturday the 29th, the World Trade Organization and the Bank Afreximbank signed a Memorandum of Understanding to strengthen their combined efforts in promoting global trade. This agreement aims to harmonize and coordinate initiatives to advance key trade development activities on the continent. Areas of focus under this collaboration include addressing non-tariff barriers, integrating the digital economy, and improving the sustainable use of ocean resources.

On the same day, the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia completed the handover of the Abdalla Birolle Forward Operating Base to the Somali National Armed Forces. The base plays a crucial role in securing a nearby International Airport and vital supply routes. Conflicts affecting the Somalian government’s control of its own country prompted international involvement.

For our last story about this continent, on Thursday the 27th, the defense chiefs of West Africa put forward a proposal to establish a 5,000-person standby force to tackle the region's growing security conflicts. However, analysts don’t know if it can be carried out due to the potential funding constraints and divisions within the regional bloc. Omar Alieu Touray, the president of the Economic Community of West African States Commission, urged member states to rally behind the initiative, which will be discussed at the upcoming summit of regional heads of state.

Next up, The Association of South East Asian Nations Meeting on Transnational Crime ran from Wednesday the 26th through Friday the 28th of June in Laos. Discussions focused on tackling transnational crime challenges in the region, emphasizing cooperation in investigation, detection, and prosecution efforts. Participants also explored the potential for regional and international collaboration to address these issues.

Moving on, The United Nations is stepping up its involvement in the Middle East: the UN Security Council passed a resolution on Thursday the 27th demanding that Yemen's Houthi rebels immediately cease attacks on ships and calling for urgent measures to address disruptions in vital Middle Eastern maritime routes. Approved by a twelve to zero vote, with Russia, China, and Algeria abstaining, the resolution extends the regulation to provide monthly reports on Houthi attacks in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. The US and Japan sponsored the resolution. The Houthis have pledged to continue attacking until the Gaza conflict ends

In education, a report from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development released on Thursday the 27th highlights that overall financial literacy levels among students are too low to navigate financial risks and opportunities. The report calls on governments to prioritize enhancing young people's financial literacy by ensuring they understand the potential pitfalls and benefits of financial products. This effort aims not just to improve students' day-to-day financial management skills but also to empower them to make informed and prudent financial choices.

And to close this edition, a World Health Organization (or WHO) report released on Tuesday the 25th indicates that alcohol consumption led to almost three million deaths annually, representing almost five percent of all deaths globally, while psychoactive drugs resulted in about half of a million deaths. Men accounted for two million of the alcohol-related deaths. According to other data from the WHO, there were around the same number of deaths due to alcohol in twenty nineteen. The organization not only reports statistics on alcohol-related deaths, but could help reduce them. Firstly, the organization can promote and support the adoption of effective alcohol policies, such as increasing taxes on alcoholic beverages, restricting sales, and enforcing age limits, although these would be in sovereign countries. It can also help to strengthen health systems to provide better support and treatment for alcohol dependency, along with monitoring and research to track alcohol consumption patterns.

Aaand that’s it for this week! Thank you for joining us!

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