MULTILATERAL: Davos’ World Economic Forum & more – 21st Jan 2025

Saluton from BA! This is the Rorshok Multilateral Update from the 21st of January twenty twenty-five. A summary of what's going down in the world's major multilateral institutions.

For our first story, the World Economic Forum summit in Davos is taking place this week, from Monday the 20th to Friday the 24th. The event will feature addresses from over sixty prominent political figures, including U.S. President Donald Trump, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Approximately 3,000 leaders from more than one hundred countries are expected to attend. Some of them will speak and collaborate on business, government, civil society, and arts sectors. The central theme for this 55th annual meeting is Collaboration for the Intelligent Age, reflecting a focus on fostering cooperation in an era increasingly influenced by advanced technologies.

The war in Ukraine continues to cause alarm within NATO: the alliance deployed Norwegian F-35 fighter jets for the first time on Wednesday the 15th in response to a significant Russian aerial operation near Polish airspace that also took place on Wednesady. The Norwegian jets, stationed in Poland since December twenty twenty-four, were scrambled to intercept Russian aircraft approaching Poland's borders.

Even though this is not the first time that NATO’s military and even its air capabilities have responded to Russian military activity near a NATO country’s borders, the move does risk escalation in relations with Russia.

In Asia, Malaysia took over as chair of the Association of South East Asian Nations on Sunday the 19th. As chair, it will focus on regional issues like South China Sea disputes, and Myanmar's unstable situation that started with a coup in twenty twenty-one. Its government has failed to effectively maintain peace since, and insurgent groups are still fighting for control of the country.

Malaysian officials stressed that while these are priorities, quick solutions are unlikely. Talks with China on a South China Sea code of conduct remain slow, and the organization’s peace plan for Myanmar hasn’t progressed much.

In the world of justice, on Friday the 17th, Karim Khan, the International Criminal Court Chief Prosecutor, made a visit to Syria’s capital, Damascus, to meet with the country’s new leader. They discussed avenues for prosecuting war crimes committed during Syria's civil war, which resulted in more than half a million deaths and more millions displaced. Even though Syria isn't a member of the court, Khan said the country could accept the court's jurisdiction to pursue justice for past atrocities.

Tech regulation is an increasingly big part of what multilateral organizations face. On Friday the 17th, the EU ordered Elon Musk's platform, Twitter (which he calls X), to fully disclose changes made to its recommendation algorithm. This comes after Germany accused the platform of promoting content from a far-right party through its recommendations. The party has notable influence given the country’s political turmoil and upcoming change in government.

The European Commission's expanded investigation requires Twitter to provide internal documents on recent and future algorithm changes. The EU regulator also sought details on how the platform moderates and amplifies content.

Twitter and its head have been sources of global controversy, as more countries and organizations have tried to regulate them, since the influence of social media has grown rapidly in recent years.

Also on Friday, António Guterres, the UN Secretary-General, reported that peacekeepers found over a hundred weapon caches following the ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel. He called on all parties to comply with the resolution for a lasting peace between Lebanon and Israel.

Even though the UN can encourage a peace deal and facilitate dialogue between warring parties, there are limits to its actual power in these contexts.

For some business news, according to a report released by the Inter-American Development Bank on Wednesday the 15th, creative Caribbean businesses are flourishing. Innovative firms show up to 35% higher productivity and 81% higher sales per worker than non-innovative ones. The report breaks down different kinds of firm innovation into three categories: businesses with new products and marketing tactics, firms with digital innovation, and green innovation.

Despite this, many businesses face barriers such as macroeconomic conditions, regulation, and finance. The report stresses that the coronavirus pandemic worsened these challenges, and several Caribbean nations are still recovering to pre-pandemic economic levels.

On Wednesday the 15th, The Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, forecasted a rise in global oil demand by almost a million and a half barrels per day in twenty twenty-six, similar to the growth expected this year. OPEC predicts that transportation fuels, especially air travel, will drive this demand increase.

OPEC expects steady growth for the next two decades, unlike the International Energy Agency's view that oil demand will peak this decade. OPEC often makes predictions about oil supply and demand in future years, but these estimates are often modified to account for unpredictable changes such as regional conflict and shifting global dynamics.

On another note, the Secretary-General of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, or OSCE, wrapped up his first visit to Helsinki on Friday the 17th, meeting with Finnish leaders, including President Alexander Stubb and Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen. Discussions focused on strengthening the OSCE, addressing regional security concerns like the war in Ukraine, and the Finnish chairpersonship's priorities.

The Secretary-General, who assumed the role in December twenty twenty-four, emphasized the need for diplomatic efforts to foster security across Europe and beyond.

Finland reaffirmed its support for Ukraine in the ongoing conflict with Russia.

In Africa, the executive board of the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, approved the second review of Ethiopia's financing program, unlocking around $250 million US dollars in funds, on Friday the 17th. The IMF praised Ethiopia’s ongoing efforts to secure debt sustainability and progress in debt restructuring under the Common Framework. The IMF and the Ethiopian government agreed upon the review in late November twenty twenty-four.

Going back to Lebanon for a bit, on Thursday the 16th, the UN Security Council called for Lebanese leaders to swiftly form a new government, emphasizing its importance for the country's stability. The Council welcomed the election of President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and urged their cooperation to build a functional government. It reaffirmed its support for Lebanon's sovereignty and territorial integrity, also calling for adherence to the ceasefire with Israel.

Next up, the International Labor Organization reported that global unemployment remains at a low 5%, but labor markets are still facing significant obstacles. Issues like high youth unemployment, inequality, and inflation are hindering recovery. While informal work and poverty have returned to pre-pandemic levels, particularly in low-income countries, there is still a global employment gap of about 400 million people. The report highlights challenges in achieving decent work, especially in regions struggling with economic instability.

In South America, the Organization for American States, or OAS, announced that Héctor Arce Zaconeta, Bolivia's Permanent Representative, officially took over as Chair of the organization’s Permanent Council on Wednesday the 15th. Lynn Raymond Young of Belize, the outgoing Chair, highlighted his work while presiding over the Council, including the twenty twenty-five Program Budget and efforts to support Haiti, human rights, and racial equality. He credited the success of these initiatives to collaboration among OAS members and permanent observers.

For our final story this week, on Thursday the 16th, the Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, may be losing a member. Robert Dussey, Togo's Minister of Foreign Affairs, discussed the possibility of Togo joining the Alliance of the Sahel Region, which could lead to the nation leaving ECOWAS. He suggested that while the decision ultimately rests with the president, it is not impossible.

Aaand that’s it for this week! Thank you for joining us!

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