MULTILATERAL: Debt & more – 28th May 2024

Saluton from BA! This is Rorshok’s Multilateral Update from the 21st of May twenty twenty-four. A summary of what's going down in the world's major multilateral institutions.

On Tuesday the 21st, the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, issued a warning to the British government. It said that Britain is likely to miss its debt target and advised against cutting taxes before the election later this year, suggesting that tax increases might be necessary in the future. It criticized some of the Prime Minister’s policies, particularly the recent tax cuts by lowering social security contributions. The upcoming British election on the 4th of July will determine whether the government led by Rishi Sunak will stay in power.

Moving into Eastern Europe, on Saturday the 25th, Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s head, stated that the U.S. shouldn’t prevent Ukraine from using American weapons to target sites within Russian territory. President Joe Biden has made clear in the past that he opposes Ukrainian strikes within Russia, fearing that the use of American weapons on Russia’s soil could provoke a larger war. Ukraine’s government has had to rely on domestically-produced drones for operations on Russian territory. American involvement in Ukraine is a particularly timely issue, as the upcoming Presidential election in the United States could mean a continuation of Biden’s Ukraine aid policy, or a suspension if Trump is elected.

Onto the Balkans: on Thursday the 23rd, the UN approved a resolution to establish the 11th of July as the International Day of Reflection and Commemoration of the nineteen ninety-five Genocide in Srebrenica, an annual day to remember the nineteen niney-five genocide of over 8,000 Bosnian Muslims in a war with Serbia.

Serbia strongly opposed this resolution because, even though it doesn’t mention Serbians being the perpatrators, it still created controversy in a region with deep-rooted ethnic tensions. Different ethnic groups in the Balkans broke out into conflict in the nineteen nineties, including some within different countries. Part of the war involved a bloody genocide of Bosnians by ethnic Serbians living in Bosnia. Even though decades have passed since the initial violence, which was suppressed in part due to NATO military intervention in Serbia, these ethnic groups still sometimes clash.

Want to know more? Head over to Rorshok’s Serbia Update with the link in the show notes!

More on the UN as multiple UN agencies, including the International Organization for Migration, or IOM, UN Women, and the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, or UNAMA, predict a 25% surge in child marriages among Afghan girls due to Taliban restrictions. According to a joint brief by many UN agencies, Afghan women continue to advocate for their right to lead lives of dignity. After the United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan in twenty twenty-one, the Taliban quickly took over the country, and imposed restrictions on women and girls.

Let’s go to South America as Colombia begins to explore a 300-year-old shipwreck off its coast on Wednesday the 22nd. However, the search has turned into a legal battle. The Permanent Court of Arbitration is now at the center of the dispute between Colombia and the US-based marine salvaging company Sea Search-Armada. Both Colombia and the company say they have the rights to the artifacts found in the Spanish warship. The company argues that it was them who discovered the shipwreck, while Colombia says that it’s in its territory. The role of the Permanent Court of Arbitration will be crucial as the dispute is valued at $10 billion.

Also concerning South American countries, on Friday the 24th, the International Court of Justice, or ICJ, ruled that Ecuador didn’t have to protect Mexico's embassy following a raid on Mexico's embassy in Quito, Ecuador’s capital last month. Mexico initiated the complaint at the United Nations' top court in response to Ecuadorian police storming the embassy compound to arrest former Vice President Jorge Glas. President Glas fled Ecuador after being charged with crimes related to abusing his power.

Illegally entering a country’s embassy violates that nation’s sovereignty and goes against diplomatic norms.

In the U.S. Congress, on Friday the 24th, Congressman Frank Pallone Jr. launched an investigation into potential price manipulation in the oil industry. This move comes in the wake of recent revelations that the former CEO of the Pioneer Natural Resources Company allegedly tried to coordinate oil production levels with the Organization of Petrolium Exporting Countries, or OPEC, and competitors to drive up gas prices. In light of these findings, Pallone sent a letter to several fossil fuel companies demanding their documents and communications. Pallone seeks to determine whether oil producers and OPEC are collaborating to increase gas prices. While members of Congress in the United States generally look after the interests of their constituents, it is not usual for a single member to target specific companies or industries.

On the same day, the Inter-American Development Bank, or IDB, launched a new global platform called the FiCS Lab designed to aid public development banks in expanding climate finance. It will offer technical assistance, grants, and promote innovation, knowledge sharing, and collaboration among public development banks.

In other news, Ebrahim Patel, the South African Trade Minister, announced on Wednesday the 22nd that his country may file a formal grievance at the World Trade Organization, or WTO, against an EU carbon border tax. The EU proposed tax would levy charges on imports of carbon-reliant goods like steel and cement. In October, the EU initiated a trial phase of the tax. A spokesperson for the European Commission affirmed that the EU created the border tax to align with WTO regulations and would allow price deductions in certain circumstances. South Africa opposed the change out of fears that the tax could hurt its industry.

In Asia, Anwar Ibrahim, the Malaysian Prime Minister, urged the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, on Thursday the 23rd, to prioritize unity among members. Speaking at the Future of Asia summit in Tokyo, Ibrahim stressed the need for ASEAN to adopt a more assertive and vibrant strategy as regional disputes, especially the territorial conflict over the South China Sea, are becoming more dangerous for surrounding countries. China’s economic growth strategy and military aggression toward vessels of multiple countries in the South China Sea have threatened the safety and economic security of several ASEAN members.

In some positive news, the UN’s operation Saving African Wildlife through Multilateral Assistance, or SAMA, achieved a significant milestone in combating wildlife trafficking in Africa. The groundbreaking operation resulted in the seizure of over 100 endangered species products across nineteen countries. It marked the first Africa-focused endeavor on wildlife trafficking coordinated entirely by authorities within the continent. The initiative witnessed the involvement of thirty-five countries, highlighting collaborative efforts. Because of the success of the initial phase, all stakeholders have committed to extending the initiative with Operation SAMA II.

Finally, on Sunday the 26th, the newly elected Speaker of the Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, vowed to implement a code of ethics for the organization’s Parliament. The speaker emphasized the need for smarter and more organized deliberation, and for people governed by ECOWAS countries to be proud of their collective governance. ECOWAS is a political and economic organization meant to foster collaboration on regional issues among its fifteen member states. It often collaborates with the African Union on common regional challenges, and has helped bring together nations that have faced recent hardships.

Aaand that’s it for this week! Thank you for joining us!

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See you next week!