MULTILATERAL: Recovery & more – 18th Jun 2024

Saluton from BA! This is the Rorshok Multilateral Update from the 18th of June twenty twenty-four. A summary of what's going down in the world's major multilateral institutions.

Kicking off this edition, on Tuesday the 11th, during a conference on the recovery of Ukraine, the UN Environment Program, the UN Economic Commission for Europe, and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development announced the Platform for Action on the Green Recovery of Ukraine. This initiative, developed with the Ukrainian Government, addresses urgent environmental needs in a way that is aligned with international commitments. It provides a forum for defining green recovery in Ukraine, considering its EU candidacy, and supports policy reforms, practices, and institutions for a green post-war recovery.

Speaking of Ukraine, on Friday the 14th, NATO defense ministers agreed on a strategy to ensure consistent long-term security assistance and military training for the country. This decision follows delays in Western financial, arms, and ammunition deliveries, which allowed Russian forces to gain an advantage on the battlefield. Kyiv's Western allies have primarily coordinated their support through the Pentagon-led Ukraine Defense Contact Group, a coalition of approximately fifty countries working to provide the critical weapons and ammunition that Ukraine urgently requires. The need for a long-term strategy comes because some leaders are concerned that, if more right-wing figures rise to power, like Hungary’s Viktor Orban and Donald Trump, more safeguards will be needed to prevent aid from withering.

Nationalist movements in Europe and the overall West have reduced their support for NATO’s aid to Ukraine, and some leaders are worried that, if the war goes on for months or even years - popular support in the West might dwindle and make it harder to help Ukraine in the war.

Also in Europe, the parliamentary elections were held on Sunday the 9th. Right-wing parties showed significant influence, leading French President Emmanuel Macron to call for national elections. Despite Sunday's outcomes, mainstream pro-EU parties still seemed to maintain control. The center-right EU political group secured the most seats in the European Parliament, bolstering European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s chances of serving a second term. She has established a strong working relationship with the Biden administration.

For our last story on Europe, there’s controversy regarding a diplomatic meeting in Romania: On Saturday, the 15th, Radu Filip, the spokesperson for Romania's Foreign Ministry, announced that the country had declined to grant visas to Russian and Belarusian delegations for the upcoming annual session of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in the Europe Parliamentary Assembly because of the Russian-Ukranian war. The event will run from the 29th of June to the 3rd of July. Tensions between Russia and other European nations have not settled down since the war began, especially with some former Eastern-bloc countries and Russia.

Moving on, a potential Israel-Palestine ceasefire may be winding down: On Monday the 10th, the United Nations Security Council endorsed President Joe Biden's proposal for a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel in the Gaza Strip, with Hamas welcoming the United States resolution. For months, negotiators from Egypt, Qatar, and the US have been working to broker a ceasefire. Hamas wants the war in Gaza to end and the Israeli withdrawal from the enclave of 2.3 million people. The ceasefire was hard to reach for months due to opposition from the Israeli government, American reluctance, and Hamas negotiators resisting proposed terms for peace. As the turmoil in the Israeli government unfolds and the American election draws nearer, both countries are facing increased pressure for a political win in the form of a ceasefire. Whether or not such a ceasefire lasts is anyone’s guess.

Onto Africa: on Friday the 14th, Angola became the first member of the African Union (or AU) to officially ratify the statute of the African Court of Justice and Human Rights, or the Malabo Protocol. Before it can take effect, fourteen other AU countries still need to endorse the statute. The Malabo Protocol's goal is to extend the court's jurisdiction to cover specific international crimes and address interstate complaints and human rights cases. Once established and with widespread AU member state ratification, the court will be able to significantly combat impunity for serious international crimes across the continent, working alongside national courts, special international courts, and the International Criminal Court.

Also concerning Africa, the Commissioner for Economic Affairs and Agriculture of the Economic Community of West African States participated in a multilateral meeting in France. The Sahel and West Africa Policy Steering Group hosted the meeting, aimed at improving issues like regional conflicts and food scarcity. The Sahel region in Africa stretches across the continent just south of the Sahara Desert, including parts of countries such as Mauritania, Mali, and Chad. The Sahel region has harsh weather, with extreme temperatures and limited rainfall, which contribute to frequent droughts and desertification. In recent years, the Sahel has faced numerous challenges, including armed conflicts, political instability, severe poverty, and the impacts of climate change, which lead to widespread food insecurity and humanitarian crises.

Karim Khan, The chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, is trying to prove allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity in al-Fashir, Darfur, which has become a new battleground between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. In a video statement published on Tuesday the 11th, prosecutor Khan announced an active investigation into potential atrocity crimes happening in Darfur.

In Asia, a senior official from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations announced on Wednesday the 12th that negotiations with China on a code of conduct to reduce conflicts in the South China Sea will be accelerated, aiming to conclude talks by twenty twenty-six. However, discussions are ongoing regarding whether the code of conduct will be legally binding. Nations that neighbor China in the South China Sea have had conflicts with China before, often regarding territorial disputes.

In the world of energy, the International Energy Agency or IEA issued a cautionary note on Wednesday the 12th, suggesting that an oversupply in the global oil market could hinder the efforts of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to stabilize prices through production cuts. According to the IEA, a surge in global oil production, primarily driven by the United States, is expected to expand the world's excess oil capacity to levels.

On Friday the 7th, World Food Safety Day was celebrated for the first time ever, with global events raising awareness for food insecurity and related issues. The theme was Prepare for the Unexpected. According to the WHO, around 1.6 million people fall ill every day on average due to unsafe food.

But the WHO also has some positive news regarding the risk of another pandemic. Even though some health experts are alarmed by the recent spread of a strain of avian flu in North America, the organization’s head assured the world on Wednesday, the 12th, that the risk to humans remains low. Avian flu is a viral infection that primarily affects birds but can occasionally infect humans and other animals. In humans, avian flu can lead to symptoms ranging from mild respiratory issues to severe pneumonia and even death. However, human infections are rare and usually occur through direct contact with infected birds.

Aaand that’s it for this week! Thank you for joining us!

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See you next week!