MULTILATERAL: The NATO Summit & more – 16th July 2024

Saluton from BA! This is the Rorshok Multilateral Update from the 16th of July twenty twenty-four. A summary of what's going down in the world's major multilateral institutions.

To kick things off, the NATO Summit in Washington last week drew attention to President Biden’s gaffes, but there were also some interesting developments in the bloc’s relations with Ukraine: although they did not extend a formal invitation for Ukraine to join NATO, the allies asserted that Ukraine is on an irreversible path to membership and they committed to providing approximately $43 billion annually to support Kyiv in its defense against Russia and in deterring future aggression. New pledges were made to enhance air defense, including the provision of Patriot missile systems and fighter jets. NATO agreed to launch a new program to consistently provide military aid and training, ensuring Ukraine's preparedness for eventual alliance membership.

As NATO’s relations with Ukraine have become more solidified, NATO’s relations with China are becoming increasingly rocky. China criticized NATO on Thursday the 11th for prioritizing its own security at the expense of others, and warned it should not act similarly in Asia. Trade between China and Russia has increased since the invasion.

During a summit in Washington, NATO claimed that China's no-limits partnership with Russia and its significant support for Russia's defense sector has made it an enabler of the war. Western leaders have been weary of a strong relationship between China and Russia, particularly concerning China’s role in minimizing the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia.

The United Nations General Assembly, although not typically an instrument used against Russia, called for the withdrawal of Russian forces from a Ukrainian nuclear power plant on Thursday the 11th. Russian troops captured the plant soon after their large-scale invasion in February twenty twenty-two. Now, it is shut down but still relies on external power to cool its nuclear materials and avoid a meltdown. Ukraine’s UN Ambassador implored member nations to support the resolution.

Also concerning Russia, on Friday the 12th, Russia's prosecutor general announced that a court set up by Russia in Ukraine's Donetsk region sentenced an official from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, or OSCE, to fourteen years in prison, accusing them of espionage for unknown foreign intelligence agencies. The OSCE, a collective of fifty-seven countries, such as Russia, Ukraine, and many Western nations, sent a monitoring mission to eastern Ukraine from twenty fourteen to twenty twenty-two. These monitors were responsible for overseeing various tenuous ceasefires between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists. Their mission ended and they were evacuated following Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February twenty twenty-two.

EU tech regulators announced on Friday the 12th that X, or formally Twitter, breached European Union online content rules. The regulators alleged that the blue checkmark usage on the platform is misleading users. This decision, following a seven-month investigation, could result in fines and significant operational changes for the company. The European Commission's charges require major online platforms and search engines to better address illegal content and public security threats. The findings pointed to X's use of dark patterns to manipulate user behavior, insufficient advertising transparency, and limited data access for researchers.

Back to the UN: the UN Security Council adopted a resolution condemning the escalating gang violence and criminal activities in Haiti on Friday the 12th. The resolution, supported by the United States and Ecuador, expresses grave concerns over the influx of illegal arms and their role in empowering gangs and exacerbating armed violence, including gender-based crimes. It extends the mandate of the UN political mission in Haiti, focusing on supporting a Haitian led political process leading to fair elections. The council reiterated its endorsement of a Kenyan multinational security force to assist the Haitian National Police in restoring security, with an initial group of 200 Kenyan officers already deployed to Port-au-Prince.

In Africa, the United Nations Environmental Programme, or UNEP, committed to helping Tanzania with clean environmental efforts, including by promoting cooking in more environmentally friendly ways, on Friday the 12th.

The UNEP is dedicated to addressing global environmental issues and promoting sustainable development. It works to coordinate international environmental activities, providing guidance and support to countries so they can develop and implement environmentally sound policies and practices. UNEP focuses on a range of critical areas including climate change, biodiversity, pollution, and resource efficiency. It conducts scientific research, raises awareness, and advocates for stronger environmental governance. The UNEP not only helps individual countries like Tanzania with specific green goals, but also does so on a global scale and fosters coordination between different entities, like governments, non-governmental organizations, and the private sector to implement projects and initiatives aimed at protecting the environment.

In the world of oil, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries held on its forecast of strong global oil demand growth for twenty twenty-four and twenty twenty-five, citing resilient economic growth and increased summer travel as key drivers on Wednesday the 10th. The organization's monthly report maintains predictions of a 2.25 million barrels per day rise in oil demand for twenty twenty-four and an almost two million barrels per day increase for twenty twenty-five, unchanged from previous estimates. There is notable divergence among oil forecasters regarding future demand, influenced by differing opinions on the global transition to cleaner energy sources. Earlier, BP, a British multinational oil and gas company, forecasted a peak in oil demand by next year.

Also concerning international finance, the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, announced on Friday the 12th that gross capital inflows into emerging markets, excluding China, reached $110 billion in the past year, amounting to a little over half a percent of their economic output, which is the highest since twenty eighteen. Despite the lure of higher U.S. interest rates driving investments toward dollar assets, emerging markets showed resilience, according to the IMF's External Sector Report on currencies, capital flows, and financial imbalances.

On Friday the 12th, the Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS endorsed a Human Rights Council Resolution taking note of the importance of healthcare for people living with the condition. The resolution underscores the significance of human rights and community leadership in addressing HIV, emphasizing equitable access to affordable prevention, testing, and treatment services for everyone, free from discrimination. It urges nations to address discriminatory attitudes and punitive laws hindering healthcare access, and to bolster community-led organizations while safeguarding civic freedoms.

Along with HIV, other global health threats are being overlooked to an extent. The World Health Organization highlighted on Thursday the 11th that COVID-19 continues to cause approximately 1,700 deaths per week worldwide, underscoring the critical need for ongoing vaccination efforts among vulnerable populations. The WHO director-general raised alarms about declining vaccine uptake, noting significant drops among healthcare workers and individuals aged sixty and above, who are particularly at risk.

Finally, on Thursday the 11th, the head of the International Organization on Migration, or IOM, announced a significant influx of new funding amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars and emphasized the diversification of its donor base, a crucial development amid challenges faced by aid organizations in securing necessary funds. Amy Pope, formerly a migration adviser to President Joe Biden and now the leader of the IOM following a successful campaign last year, noted that global election outcomes are also casting doubt on future support.

The IOM is tasked with promoting the safe and orderly movement of people and providing support for migrants in crisis situations, including conflict and natural disasters. The agency offers humanitarian aid, such as food, shelter, and medical care, to displaced individuals. It also facilitates voluntary return and reintegration programs, helping migrants return to their home countries and rebuild their lives. Additionally, the IOM works on migration policy development, promoting international cooperation, and ensuring the protection of migrants' rights. Given the responsibilities and goals of the IOM, its activities are highly reliant on consistent funding.

Aaand that’s it for this week! Thank you for joining us!

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