MULTILATERAL: Trade deals & more – 30th July 2024

Saluton from BA! This is the Rorshok Multilateral Update from the 30th of July twenty twenty-four. A summary of what's going down in the world's major multilateral institutions.

To begin, Poland’s Deputy Foreign Minister questioned Hungary's place in the EU and NATO on Sunday the 28th after Viktor Orban, the Hungarian prime minister, made controversial comments. During a speech, Orban criticized Poland for hypocrisy and labeled the policies of the EU and the West as misguided. Poland’s Deputy Foreign Minister responded by highlighting Hungary's continued dealings with Russia and Orban's marginalized status in international society. He criticized Orban's speech as an attack on Poland, the U.S., the EU, and NATO, and questioned why Hungary remains in organizations it appears to disdain, suggesting that Orban might prefer an alliance with Vladimir Putin and other authoritarian states. Our Poland Update has a new episode coming out next Friday, we'll make sure to update you further on this if something new comes out. Find the link in bio and subscribe so you don't miss the next episode!

Speaking of the EU, it is still making progress on boosting international cooperation, even if it is struggling internally: the EU and Singapore finalized a digital trade agreement on Thursday the 25th aimed at facilitating cross-border data flows and establishing global data rules. This agreement includes new methods of ensuring consumer protection. For the EU, this deal underscores its goal of becoming a global leader in digital trade standards, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. The EU already has digital trade agreements with Britain, Chile, and New Zealand, a data flow deal with Japan, and ongoing negotiations with South Korea.

In June, Russian crude oil production exceeded the limits set by the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus group, or OPEC Plus. On Wednesday the 24th, the Russian energy ministry committed to meeting the required output levels for July. The ministry announced that Russia had provided its overproduction compensation plan to the OPEC secretariat and noted a steady decline in oil output since April. OPEC, which consists of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies led by Russia, has enforced substantial output reductions since late twenty twenty-two. Overproduction of crude oil is notable for the global economy because it can lead to a significant drop in oil prices, impacting various sectors and countries differently. Low oil prices can benefit oil-importing nations by reducing energy costs, spurring economic growth, and lowering inflation. However, for oil-exporting countries, it can lead to reduced revenues, economic instability, and budget deficits, potentially causing broader economic and political ramifications. Additionally, sustained low prices might discourage investment in oil production and exploration, potentially leading to supply constraints in the long term and affecting the global energy market's balance.

The elections in the United Kingdom earlier this month are already having effects on the country’s foreign relations: on Friday the 26th, Britain announced it would not continue with efforts to challenge the International Criminal Court, or ICC, in its effort to issue arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, and Yoav Gallant, the Defence Minister. In May, the ICC's prosecutor had requested arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant, and three Hamas leaders on allegations of war crimes. Court documents released in June indicated that Britain, as an ICC member, had asked to submit written observations on whether the court has jurisdiction over Israeli nationals, considering Palestine's inability to exercise criminal jurisdiction over them under the Oslo Accords.

In health-related news, the World Health Organization, or WHO, is planning to send over a million polio vaccines to Gaza in the next few weeks to protect children after the virus was found in local sewage, according to the head of the WHO in comments he made on Friday the 26th. While no polio cases have been reported so far, he warned that swift action is necessary to prevent the virus from spreading to thousands of unvaccinated children. The conflict in Gaza has disrupted vaccination campaigns, leaving children under five, particularly those under two, at the highest risk. Polio, a highly contagious disease primarily spread through the fecal-oral route, can infect the nervous system and cause paralysis. Global polio cases have plummeted since nineteen eighty-eight due to extensive vaccination efforts.

Despite routine voting irregularities driven by government corruption, Azerbaijan will allow election observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, or OSCE, to monitor the snap parliamentary election set for September the 1st later this month. Azerbaijan's elections have faced significant criticism for numerous issues, including allegations of voter fraud, lack of transparency, and suppression of political opposition. International observers, such as the OSCE, have frequently reported that elections are neither free nor fair, citing concerns over media restrictions, intimidation of candidates and voters, and the arrest of political activists. The dominance of the ruling party, coupled with limited space for genuine political competition and civil society engagement, undermines the democratic process and raises questions about the legitimacy of election outcomes in Azerbaijan. Election observers are unlikely to meaningfully change the outcome of the election, even if it has notable irregularities, due to the strength of the ruling party in Azerbaijan.

On Saturday the 27th, foreign ministers of ASEAN, or the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, denounced the violence against civilians in Myanmar, which is under military rule, and urged all sides to halt hostilities. Their joint statement, released two days after a private meeting in Laos, also supported unspecified actions to de-escalate tensions in the South China Sea and prevent potential accidents. Additionally, the ministers expressed concern over North Korea's missile tests and called for peaceful solutions to the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, highlighting the serious humanitarian crises in these areas.

Onto Africa: the West African bloc ECOWAS, or the Economic Community of West African States, announced a new counterterrorism force on Sunday the 28th. Although Bola Tinubu, the president of Nigeria, suggested that the force is ready for deployment, there has been no information on its size, base, funding, or operational details. Tinubu, addressing African leaders at an African Union meeting in Ghana, announced the beginning of the force, which was initially proposed in August twenty twenty-three following a coup in Niger. The planned force is to include military, police, and civilian personnel from ECOWAS member states, but specifics on which countries will contribute and the operational base remain unclear.

Also in Africa, the African Union imposed a fifteen-day deadline on Niger's junta to reinstate the country's democratically elected government on Friday the 26th. This ultimatum comes as the coup leaders met with senior civil servants to discuss the administration of the country and as the U.S. and European Union signaled possible sanctions against the new regime.

In Latin America, a new environmental program is emerging: Regulatory organizations from Latin America and the Caribbean announced the formal establishment of the Environmental Alliance of America on Wednesday the 24th, marking the launch of the region's first eco-labeling program. This initiative represents a major advancement in unifying and promoting eco-labeling practices. The program has the support of the UN Environment Programme with funding from Germany, and aims to foster sustainable trade and improve consumer choices for over 450 million people.

Also in Latin America, the Inter-American Development Bank and several Brazilian banks revealed on Thursday the 25th that they had joint plans to develop an exchange-traded fund focused on sustainable investments in the Amazon rainforest. The fund is planned to be introduced in the capital markets prior to the COP30 climate conference in Belem, Brazil, next year.

Finally, approximately half of World Trade Organization members have agreed on a preliminary deal to eliminate tariffs on digital transactions, which are growing at twice the rate of physical goods. The agreement includes major players like the US, China, Japan, the UK, and the EU, though the US has shown some hesitation. South Africa and India, known for their concerns about rules favoring wealthy nations, were not part of the deal, which was announced on Friday the 26th. This move supports the rapid growth of digital goods and services, which has benefited both major tech firms and traditional businesses engaged in international e-commerce.

Aaand that’s it for this week! Thank you for joining us!

Do you know that besides the Multilateral Update, we also do others? Our latest ones are the Arctic Update, about the area north of the Arctic Circle, and the Ocean Update, about the 70% of the earth covered in salt water. The other ones are all country updates, we have a selection of countries from Africa, Asia, South America, and Europe. Check roroshok.com/updates to see the full list and find the link in the shownotes as well.

See you next week!