MULTILATERAL: Ukraine War Projections & more – 12th Nov 2024

Saluton from BA! This is the Rorshok Multilateral Update from the 12th of November twenty twenty-four. A summary of what's going down in the world's major multilateral institutions.

For our first story this week, retired NATO Commander James Stavridis projected potential outcomes for Putin’s conflict in Ukraine on Saturday the 9th. He envisions the war ending through a ceasefire agreement or frozen conflict rather than a decisive military victory. Stavridis believes that neither Russia nor Ukraine will achieve complete dominance, leading instead to a prolonged stalemate. He also notes the critical influence of ongoing Western support for Ukraine in determining the conflict’s duration and resolution.

After Donald Trump was once again elected in the United States, this time more decisively than last, there has been growing fear that Ukraine cannot succeed if Trump follows through on his impulses to end the war in an American-led cease-fire. According to experts, Trump’s praises of Putin and comments that the war was a smart strategic step on the Russian President’s part make the chances of a Ukrainian victory much less likely.

More about Ukraine: the European Union sought to reassure the country of its steadfast backing on Saturday the 9th, following Donald Trump's U.S. election victory. EU leaders emphasized their commitment to supporting Ukraine’s defense and rebuilding efforts amid concerns Trump’s return could shift American foreign policy priorities. The EU reiterated its dedication to Ukrainian sovereignty and stability, highlighting that European assistance will remain strong despite potential changes in U.S. involvement in the conflict with Russia.

Let’s move on to the conflict between Israel and Palestine: on Tuesday the 5th, the head of the UN Relief and Works Agency called on United Nations members to act urgently as Palestinian territories are constantly plunging into deeper chaos. He highlighted that Palestinians need immediate international support. He also noted the dire situation's impacts on healthcare, education, and essential services, urging sustained aid to prevent further destabilization in the region and relieve Palestinian suffering amid deteriorating conditions.

In more news about this conflict, on Thursday the 7th, the Irish foreign minister announced that Ireland would support South Africa's case against Israel at the International Court of Justice. This move underscores Ireland’s commitment to addressing alleged human rights violations against Palestinians. Ireland has advocated for increased international scrutiny and legal accountability. Several nations are attempting to use international legal mechanisms to pressure Israel to stop its war or at least conduct it in a way that leads to fewer civilian deaths. More efforts similar to Ireland and South Africa’s are likely to continue.

Speaking of Palestine, on Monday the 4th, the International Labor Organization, or ILO, granted it observer state status, marking a significant diplomatic development. This status allows Palestine to participate more fully in ILO discussions and initiatives, fostering increased representation in international labor matters. Palestinian officials welcomed this as a step toward broader international recognition, while the ILO emphasized the importance of inclusive dialogue among member states to address labor rights and economic challenges within Palestinian territories.

On an unrelated note, on Thursday the 7th, the International Criminal Court, or ICC, issued an arrest warrant for Edmond Beina, a militia leader in the Central African Republic. The ICC accused Beina of orchestrating severe crimes in the war-torn region. This warrant represents the ICC's ongoing efforts to bring accountability to conflict zones and curb human rights abuses.

Next up, on Wednesday the 6th, The United Nations Environment Program, or UNEP, introduced the first Pan-African Action Plan for Active Mobility, aimed at promoting walking and cycling across Africa. Launched during the World Urban Forum, this initiative seeks to improve sustainable urban transport, reduce emissions, and improve public health. The UNEP emphasized that active mobility can address climate change while offering economic benefits and improving the quality of life in African cities, marking a significant step in sustainable development efforts across the continent.

More news concerning the UN, as on Friday the 8th the Security Council imposed sanctions on two generals from Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces due to their roles in ongoing violence and humanitarian abuses. The sanctions, which include asset freezes and travel bans, are part of international efforts to curb atrocities in Sudan’s conflict. This move highlights the UN's commitment to holding leaders accountable for intensifying the country’s instability, while pressuring Sudan’s factions toward peace and civilian protection amid escalating violence.

On Monday the 4th, the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, raised Ethiopia’s international reserves target following its first program review, reflecting improvements in the country's economic stability. The IMF’s decision acknowledges Ethiopia's strides in economic reform and external debt management, key to fostering growth and resilience. The updated target aims to boost Ethiopia's capacity to manage economic shocks and support sustainable development, as the IMF continues working with Ethiopia to secure economic progress amid regional challenges.

On the same day, The Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, in collaboration with Nigeria's Energy Commission, launched a new initiative focused on advancing renewable energy in West Africa. The project aims to promote sustainable energy solutions and reduce the region’s dependency on fossil fuels. The initiative seeks to stimulate economic growth while addressing climate change by making more sustainable energy access and promoting green technologies. This partnership underscores ECOWAS's commitment to energy security and the transition to cleaner energy across West Africa.

The UN Migration Agency reported some sad news on Monday the 4th: At least twenty-five people died after the boat they were using to migrate sank off the coast of Libya. The migrant traffickers' actions resulted in the sinking of the overcrowded vessel, another part of the wider issue of migrants crossing over the seas without adequate protection for the journey. The tragic incident highlights the growing dangers faced by migrants trying to cross the Mediterranean. The UN called for urgent action to prevent such abuses and ensure better protection for vulnerable migrants.

Cuban authorities reaffirmed their vigilance in response to the resurgence of measles cases in the Americas on Friday the 8th. The Ministry of Public Health reported an increase in measles infections across the region, prompting Cuba to strengthen its surveillance and vaccination programs. The country continues to prioritize the prevention of outbreaks through its robust public health system, with a focus on immunizing children and vulnerable populations to maintain its measles-free status.

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, or ECLAC, concluded a convention emphasizing the importance of improving regional cooperation in digital transformation on Thursday the 7th. The meeting focused on fostering collaboration among Latin American countries to improve digital infrastructure, access to technology, and innovation. ECLAC officials highlighted that strengthening digital capabilities could drive economic growth, improve education, and address social inequalities, while promoting sustainable development across the region.

For our final story, the World Health Organization, or WHO, announced that countries worldwide have pledged to take action on the escalating issue of childhood violence, which affects around one billion children globally. The pledge, made during a high-level meeting on Thursday the 7th, underscores the commitment of nations to address physical, emotional, and sexual violence against children. The WHO stressed the need for stronger policies, improved child protection systems, and increased funding to combat this urgent public health situation. The effort has been coupled with specific initiatives to help children in Gaza and other areas, such as Lebanon and the West Bank, that have faced unsafe conditions, including violence due to Israel’s ongoing war in the Middle East.

Aaand that’s it for this week! Thank you for joining us!

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See you next week!