MULTILATERAL: Zelenskyy to Drop NATO Membership Bid? & more – 16th Dec 2025

Saluton from BA! This is the Rorshok Multilateral Update from the 16th of December twenty twenty-five. A summary of what's going down in the world's major multilateral institutions.

Beginning this week, on Monday the 15th, the United Nations Development Program sounded the alarm at the Global Refugee Forum’s review meeting. It said that even though more people than ever are forced from their homes, funding and long-term support for refugees, people who have returned, and the communities hosting them are slipping. They pointed out that investment in basic services like jobs, schools, and clinics helps people settle and reduces tension, but current contributions aren’t keeping up.

Meanwhile, on Sunday the 14th, President Zelenskyy said he’s open to dropping Ukraine’s long-held goal of joining NATO if Western nations commit to solid security guarantees. He framed this as a meaningful concession, noting that many allies have already ruled out NATO membership in the foreseeable future. At the same time, Zelenskyy firmly refused U.S. suggestions that Ukraine give up control of territory in the east.

Ukraine’s bid for NATO membership has been a pillar of its foreign policy, driven by Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the ongoing war. While Ukraine has repeatedly framed accession as the strongest possible security guarantee, several NATO members have been reluctant to extend membership to a country actively at war, fearing direct confrontation with Russia.

In related news, on Friday the 12th, the European Union moved to lock up over 200 billion US dollars worth of Russian funds held in Europe indefinitely so that member governments like Hungary and Slovakia can’t block how the money might be used to help Ukraine. This step replaces the old system that required every country’s approval every six months. EU officials say the freeze will stay until Russia stops its war and pays for the damage it caused, and it could pave the way for big loans to support Ukraine’s finances and defense.

On Friday the 12th, the United Nations General Assembly overwhelmingly passed a resolution urging Israel to open up humanitarian access into the Gaza Strip and follow its obligations under international law. Backed by almost 140 countries, the measure also calls for respect for UN facilities and cooperation with aid agencies working there. Leaders from Palestine’s government welcomed the vote.

On Saturday the 13th, leaders from the Association of South East Asian Nations condemned Myanmar’s military after an airstrike struck a hospital, killing at least thirty-one people and injuring many others. The bloc said attacking civilians and medical facilities violates international humanitarian rules and goes against their principles.

Myanmar’s conflict has intensified since the military seized power in a coup in February twenty twenty-one, overturning the results of a democratic election and detaining civilian leaders. The country has descended into a fragmented civil war, with the military struggling to reassert control amid humanitarian crises, economic collapse, and escalating violence across multiple regions.

On Thursday the 11th, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and Asian Development Bank released a report saying that Southeast Asia’s recent economic gains won’t stick unless governments build up strong institutions and keep public finances under control. The analysis suggests better budgeting, fiscal planning and broader use of digital tools can help officials deliver services, support growth, and handle challenges like urbanization and tech shifts.

On Friday the 12th, the International Labor Organization reaffirmed its push to expand financial inclusion in Indonesia to help micro, small, and medium-sized companies, rural workers, and participants in the informal economy grow and become more stable. Officials said connecting small businesses and farmers to formal financial systems can make them more resilient, productive and better able to manage risks.

In Africa, on Sunday the 14th, leaders of the Economic Community of West African States warned they are prepared to impose sanctions on people obstructing Guinea-Bissau’s return to civilian rule following last month’s military takeover, which we have reported on.

Meeting at a regional summit, officials rejected the junta’s proposed transition timeline and demanded the release of detained political figures. The group also called on international partners to support efforts aimed at restoring democratic governance and political stability in the country.

On Friday the 12th, the United States told the United Nations that it believes Rwanda is fueling wider fighting in East Africa by backing the M23 rebel group’s push in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, undermining a recently signed peace deal and risking regional spread of conflict. U.S. Ambassador Mike Waltz said Rwanda should respect Congo’s sovereignty and stop supporting the offensive.

For our last story on Africa, on Friday the 12th, the International Monetary Fund staff finished a technical mission that focused on helping Ghana. The team met with government officials, civil society groups and development partners to talk through priority reforms in areas like public finance, revenue management, transparency and accountability. Officials said the work is meant to support ongoing improvements in how state institutions operate and to coordinate support from partners as Ghana moves ahead with these governance changes in the months ahead.

In health updates, on Thursday the 11th, the World Health Organization said a fresh review by its expert vaccine advisory group again found no evidence connecting vaccines to autism. The analysis looked at decades of research from multiple countries and reviewed allegations that have circulated widely online and in public debates. The organization’s officials said the findings back long-standing scientific consensus and stressed that vaccines remain safe and effective at preventing serious diseases.

The public controversy linking vaccines to autism originated about forty years ago after a now-discredited study falsely suggested a connection between a specific vaccine and autism. Even though the paper was retracted and extensive research involving millions of children has found no evidence of such a link, the allegation spread widely through media coverage, celebrity activism, and online misinformation.

This has fueled vaccine hesitancy in some communities, leading public health officials to repeatedly emphasize the scientific consensus that vaccines are safe and that declining vaccination rates increase the risk of preventable disease outbreaks.

Also on Thursday the 11th, the Pan American Health Organization urged governments across the Americas to put stronger financial protection at the center of health policy, warning that millions still struggle to pay for care. It said medical costs continue to push families into poverty or force them to skip treatment altogether. Officials called for expanded public funding, fairer health financing systems, and policies that reduce direct payments by patients.

On another note, the Inter-American Development Bank approved a $250 million US dollar guarantee to support a housing finance program in Ecuador on Thursday the 11th. It was aimed at expanding access to affordable home loans. The move is designed to help the government attract private investment by lowering risk and borrowing costs. Funds raised through the guarantee will be channeled into long-term mortgages for middle-income households via local financial institutions.

Meanwhile, on Thursday the 11th, the World Trade Organization released a report showing that global merchandise trade expanded in the third quarter of twenty twenty-five, though the pace was slower than earlier in the year. The data pointed to continued growth in trade volumes for goods overall, with stronger demand in developing economies helping balance weaker activity in some advanced markets.

And to close this edition, an opinion piece published on Sunday the 14th by the Editorial team of the Guardian argued that a ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia has quickly unraveled, exposing how fragile the deal always was. The editorial says the truce rested more on political theater than real diplomacy, with deep mistrust and unresolved border tensions left untouched.

Tensions along the Thailand-Cambodia border have flared repeatedly over the past two decades, often tied to disputed territory near historic temple sites and fueled by domestic political pressures in both countries.

The opinion piece criticizes outside mediation that prioritizes headlines over substance, warning that without sustained regional engagement and serious negotiations, short-term pauses in fighting are unlikely to hold or lead to lasting stability between the two neighbors.

To read the full piece, check out the link in the show notes.

Aaand that’s it for this week! Thank you for joining us!

Don’t forget to check out our new t-shirts with the link in the show notes!

See you next week!