Episode 20

Russia Buys Arms from North Korea & more – 7th Nov 2023

Military cooperation between Russia and North Korea, ECOWAS to avoid bloodshed in Niger, Sánchez and Lula asking for timely completion of EU-Mercosur Deal, competition and militarization in the Arctic, Gaza conflict to increase oil prices, and more.

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Transcript

Saluton from Tibidabo! This is Rorshok Multilateral Update from the 7th of November twenty twenty-three A summary of what's going down in the world's major multilateral institutions.

The European Union's External Action Service (or EEAS) accused Russia of violating UN regulations by accepting weapons from North Korea for use in its military campaign in Ukraine. The EEAS condemned this arms cooperation, emphasizing that it directly contradicted UN Security Council resolutions jointly crafted by Russia. The UN measures aimed at restricting military collaboration with North Korea due to its nuclear weapons program.

Reports indicate that since the meeting between North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin, there has been a noticeable increase in military cooperation between the two countries. South Korea's National Intelligence Service revealed that North Korea had conducted at least ten arms transfers to Russia, including the delivery of a million artillery rounds. In exchange, Russia was reportedly assisting North Korea in developing satellite technology.

This arms assistance could potentially strengthen Moscow's position in the conflict with Ukraine, coinciding with the EU's lag in fulfilling its commitment to supply Kyiv with one million rounds by the following March.

In Africa, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu has mentioned that the Economic Community of West African States (or ECOWAS) is employing back-channel strategies to avoid bloodshed in Niger. President Tinubu emphasized the need to protect detained President Mohamed Bazoum, who the armed forces ousted from power on the 26th of July. He expressed concern for Bazoum, because the military is using him as a human shield. Members of ECOWAS have been closely monitoring the situation in Niger, and they are exploring diplomatic channels to prevent violence. President Tinubu acknowledged the desires of the Niger people and their preference for a peaceful resolution rather than war. Catherine Colonna, French Minister of Europe and Foreign Affairs, commended President Tinubu's leadership in managing regional affairs and expressed France's readiness to collaborate with Nigeria across various sectors. She also invited President Tinubu to attend the upcoming Paris Peace Forum.

According to Fatih Birol, the International Energy Agency (or IEA) chief, the recent conflict in Gaza could expedite the global transition from oil and gas to renewable energy. Birol emphasized the vulnerabilities of oil and gas amidst regional crises and market pressures, advocating for wind and solar energy as more sustainable solutions for energy security and climate challenges. The IEA's Annual Energy Outlook predicts a potential peak for coal, oil, and gas before twenty thirty, with renewables projected to constitute approximately half of global energy production. While positive, the report stressed the need for faster clean energy adoption to limit global temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius (or thirty-five Fahrenheit), urging significant increases in renewable energy production and reductions in methane leaks from fossil fuel operations.

Moving on to the blockbuster of the EU-Mercosur negotiations, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez emphasized the need for the timely finalization of the trade agreement during a recent phone call. The trade deal, which faced resistance due to newly proposed environmental requirements by the European side earlier this year, is currently a priority for both leaders. Lula expressed the urgency of concluding negotiations by the end of the year, coinciding with the conclusion of their respective terms. He also reiterated his criticism of the EU's environmental demands and the limitations on government procurements in the agreement. Additionally, Lula invited Sánchez to visit Brazil, underscoring their friendly relations.

On not-so-friendly relations, Admiral Rob Bauer, Chair of NATO's Military Committee, expressed concerns about the escalating competition and militarization in the Arctic region, primarily by Russia and China. Bauer's recent address at the Arctic Circle Assembly in Iceland underscored Russia's strengthening foothold in the Arctic and its collaborative efforts with China. He emphasized NATO's defensive posture while recognizing the necessity to bolster security measures in the region. Additionally, Bauer praised Iceland's strategic contributions to the alliance, noting its significant role in enhancing situational awareness in the North Atlantic.

In humanitarian issues, a recent UNESCO report highlighted that 759 journalists and media workers were subject to attacks in seventy countries during election periods from January twenty nineteen to June twenty twenty-two. Law enforcement agents attacked 320 of these journalists, with 29% being women. The report revealed various forms of assault, including physical violence, obstruction of work, and hostile treatment by political entities. It emphasized the need for law enforcement agents to maintain a neutral stance during elections and to avoid becoming entangled in political interests. The report underscored the critical role of independent and credible media and stressed the importance of upholding journalists' safety and integrity. The Press Freedom Monitoring organized a panel discussion in Southeast Asia which further emphasized the heightened risks media workers face in politically charged environments during elections.

UNICEF has expressed concern over the low rate of electronic birth registration in Nigeria, with only 57% of children recorded. Rahama Rihood Farah, Chief UNICEF Field Officer in Kano, revealed that millions of newborns and children under five aren’t registered because their own mothers don’t know how the process works. He emphasized the critical need for universal birth registration, particularly for effective economic planning and meeting Sustainable Development Goals. UNICEF is actively supporting multi-sectoral partners and investing in technology to boost birth registration coverage. The National Population Commission (or NPC) aims to register one million children electronically in Kano by the end of twenty twenty-three, despite facing challenges such as workforce shortages and lack of awareness. The media dialogue aimed to create awareness about the importance of e-birth registration and encourage Kano residents to register their children with the NPC.

The World Bank has warned that the ongoing conflict in Gaza could potentially lead to a significant rise in oil prices, with projections exceeding $150 dollars per barrel. Should the situation escalate, energy and food costs could surge. The Bank emphasized the recent history of disruptive commodity market shocks, notably referencing the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Despite recent gas price concerns related to the conflict near the Gaza Strip, oil markets have remained relatively stable, hovering around $89 dollars per barrel. The Bank underscored the global economy's improved ability to handle supply shocks but cautioned that sustained high energy prices may still result in elevated inflation and food prices. The Bank was concerned about such outcomes potentially exacerbating global food insecurity, which would affect a large portion of the global population. However, in a more optimistic scenario, the Bank projected a modest disruption, resulting in a price range of $93 to $102 dollars per barrel.

Back to Africa, The United Nations World Food Programme (or WFP) issued a dire warning concerning the escalating risk of malnutrition in South Sudan, particularly among children under five. The precarious situation, attributed mainly to the adverse effects of flooding, has led to alarming conditions and a significant threat to the well-being of the nation's youngest inhabitants. With the country grappling with ongoing political instability and the enduring impacts of inter-ethnic conflicts, the detrimental consequences of extreme climatic events have only served to exacerbate an already dire humanitarian crisis. South Sudan's challenges have been compounded by the influx of refugees escaping the conflicts in neighboring Sudan, contributing to a state of "food emergency" for a considerable portion of the population.

Somalia is looking to secure funding from the International Monetary Fund (or IMF) as its budget projections surpass the $1 billion dollar mark for the first time in the country's history. The Council of Ministers has approved financial proposals that outline a budget estimate of $1,025,000,000 for the upcoming fiscal year, pending the approval of the federal parliament. Bihi Iman Egal, the Finance Minister, emphasized that a combination of domestic revenue and international grants would finance the budget for the twenty twenty-four fiscal year.

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Rorshok Multilateral Update