Secret Pakistani Arms Sales to the U.S & more– 19th Sep 2023

Saluton from BA! This is the Rorshok Multilateral Update from the 19th of September twenty twenty-three. A summary of what's going down in the world's major multilateral institutions

Secret Pakistani arms sales to the U.S. played a pivotal role in securing a controversial International Monetary Fund (or IMF) bailout earlier this year, according to two sources invoked by the non-profit news organization The Interceptor.

The arms deals, which aimed to supply the Ukrainian military, marked Pakistani involvement in a conflict it had previously remained neutral.

The IMF bailout required Pakistan to implement stringent structural policy reforms, sparking widespread protests in the country.

Pakistan's shift towards supporting the U.S. and its allies in the Ukraine war, following the ouster of Prime Minister Imran Khan, ultimately led to the IMF loan, temporarily averting an economic crisis and allowing the new government to delay elections and crack down on civil society.

However, this shift has cast doubts on the future of Pakistani democracy.

Since we mentioned the US, its State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller has denied Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's comment that the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey was linked to Turkey's approval of Sweden's NATO membership.

Miller stated that the US does not believe these events are connected and emphasized that the sale of F-16s requires approval from the US Congress.

Still, Miller acknowledged that some members of Congress see a correlation between the sale of jets and the potential NATO membership approval. President Erdoğan had mentioned that Joe Biden linked the F-16 sale to Sweden's NATO ratification.

Miller stressed the importance of Sweden's NATO accession and expected Erdoğan to push for its approval but did not comment on the sequence of events— if the sale took place before Turkey’s NATO approval or vice versa.

Moving on to nuclear news. Iran has withdrawn the designation of several International Atomic Energy Agency (or IAEA) nuclear experts responsible for inspecting its enrichment activities, a move Rafael Grossi, IAEA's director general, strongly condemned.

These inspectors were among the most experienced experts in enrichment technology and played a crucial role in verifying Iran's enrichment facilities under IAEA safeguards.

Grossi stated that Iran's decision effectively removed about one-third of the core group of the agency's most experienced inspectors designated for the country, severely affecting the IAEA's ability to conduct effective inspections.

Iran's move is legal according to the NPT Safeguards Agreement but has been criticized for undermining the IAEA's inspections.

Iran has insisted that its nuclear program is for civilian purposes.

Next up, The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (or OPEC) has criticized the International Energy Agency (or IEA) over its comments on an imminent peak in fossil fuel demand. The OPEC stated that its consistent data-based forecasts show that a peak won’t be reached before twenty thirty.

The OPEC issued a strong rebuke to the IEA's narrative, describing it as "extremely risky and impractical" to dismiss fossil fuels or suggest they are at the beginning of their end.

The cartel highlighted that past predictions of peak supply and demand have not materialized and expressed concerns about calls to stop investing in new oil and gas projects.

Haitham Al Ghais, OPEC’s Secretary General, warned that such narratives could lead to energy chaos with dire consequences for economies and people worldwide.

The OPEC has consistently argued for a more measured approach to the energy transition to ensure the security of conventional supply.

More on oil. Environmental groups have formally accused the World Bank of violating its pledge to halt support for fossil fuels by financially backing two coal-fired power plants in Indonesia.

The complaint, directed at the World Bank's private sector subsidiary, the International Financial Corporation (or IFC), centers on the corporation's indirect involvement in the Suralaya coal-fired power complex via an equity investment in Hana Bank Indonesia, one of the project's financiers.

The environmental coalition contends that expanding the Suralaya plant would release vast amounts of carbon dioxide and cause harm to local communities, including evicting people from their homes.

The IFC had committed to ending coal investments in twenty twenty but it currently has stakes in financial institutions with coal exposure, as long as they have phase-out plans.

Next week, members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (or ASEAN) will launch joint military exercises, officially called ASEAN Solidarity Exercise Natuna (or ASEX 01–Natuna).

They will take place around Batam Island in the east of the Malacca Strait from Monday the 18th to Saturday the 23rd.

The primary maritime exercises will involve regional navies, armies, and air forces.

They will focus on maritime security, disaster response, and rescue operations rather than combat exercises.

As a bloc, ASEAN has previously conducted joint exercises with other countries, including the United States and China, but this is the first time such drills will be a member-only affair.

Speaking of the military, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, currently under military rule and grappling with insurgencies linked to al Qaeda and Islamic State, have signed a security agreement called the Alliance of Sahel States.

This pact aims to support each other in the face of rebellions or external threats, particularly from the Economic Community of West African States (or ECOWAS).

Recent coups strained their relations with neighbors and international partners.

The latest coup in Niger caused tensions with ECOWAS, which threatened to use force to restore constitutional rule.

Mali and Burkina Faso have pledged to aid Niger if ECOWAS attacks. The pact considers any assault on one party's sovereignty an attack on all parties.

In other news, Derna, a city in Libya, with a population of around 100,000, was the epicenter of the flooding caused by Storm Daniel and saw entire neighborhoods swept away.

The UN has revised its death toll from the flooding, now reporting around four thosand deaths, with over nine thousand people missing. A previous report stated 11,300 deaths, but these figures were incorrect.

The revision comes after cross-checking with the World Health Organization.

Aging infrastructure, inadequate warnings, and the effects of climate change exacerbated the storm's impact.

Additionally, a Greek humanitarian aid mission to Libya suffered casualties in a road accident related to the storm.

On a different note, The Spanish National Police in collaboration with the Spanish Tax Agency, Europol, and Interpol, have successfully dismantled an organized crime ring suspected of manipulating sports events and using satellite technology to gain first-hand knowledge of match outcomes for betting purposes.

This operation resulted in the arrest of twenty-three individuals, including one of the group's leaders, who had been placed on Interpol's international wanted list.

The criminal network primarily consisted of individuals of Romanian and Bulgarian origin.

They would arrange matches outside Spain by bribing athletes, primarily from Romania and Bulgaria.

After agreeing on the results, members of the Spanish-based group placed a large number of online bets.

Notably, one of the arrested individuals was a trader from a major bookmaker.

Brazil's President Lula da Silva has set a deadline for the pending trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union, stating that negotiations must proceed on "equal terms" during the coming semester.

Lula emphasized that Mercosur wants fair treatment in the deal.

He said that a trade agreement involves a balance between buying and selling and should be reached within the coming months.

Brazil and the rest of Mercosur want the EU to be "more flexible" on potential sanctions that could be imposed on the South American countries in case they fail to fully comply with European deforestation standards.

EU negotiators are set to travel to Brasília in September to continue negotiations.

And that’s it for this week! Thank you for joining us! Before we leave, we wanted to thank everyone who has been listening to us, and welcome all the new subscribers! We are happy the Rorshok Multilateral community is growing!

However, we are also sad because we had to cancel our update about Venezuela, due to a lack of audience and revenue. So please, if you enjoy the Rorshok Multilateral Update, share it with your friends, or on social media or message us if you have any ideas on how to keep growing, without including ads.

Also, if you are feeling super generous today, you can financially support us with the link in the show notes.

See you next week!