South Africa Against Gaza Conflict, Refers Israel to ICC & more – 21st Nov 2023

Saluton from BA! This is Rorshok Multilateral Update from the 21st of November twenty twenty-three A summary of what's going down in the world's major multilateral institutions.

Cyril Ramaphosa, the South African President, announced that South Africa has referred Israel to the International Criminal Court (or ICC), alleging war crimes in Gaza. Ramaphosa particularly cited the alleged use of Gaza's al-Shifa hospital by Hamas. Israel contends that Hamas has a command center beneath the hospital, which Hamas denies. The Israel Defense Forces (or IDF) reported finding weapons, intelligence materials, and military equipment in the hospital during a raid. South Africa's opposition party, the Economic Freedom Fighters (or EFF), called for the closure of the Israeli embassy and suspension of diplomatic relations with Israel, a move endorsed by the ruling African National Congress (or ANC).

On a related note, the World Health Organization (or WHO) has called for a system to regularly evacuate critically injured and sick patients from Gaza to Egypt to alleviate the strain on overwhelmed hospitals. Gaza is facing a healthcare crisis, with twenty-five out of thirty-six hospitals non-operational and the rest struggling to provide services due to recent hostilities. Richard Peeperkorn, the WHO representative for the occupied Palestinian territories, emphasized the need for daily, safe, and orderly medical evacuations, suggesting that fifty to sixty patients per day should be transferred to Egypt for proper care. This move would help relieve the pressure on Gaza's healthcare sector and ensure that patients receive adequate treatment. Peeperkorn also expressed concerns about the safety of patients, healthcare workers, and facilities in Gaza and the spread of diseases in the region.

In another conflict in the Caucasus, the International Court of Justice (or ICJ) has issued a preliminary order requiring Azerbaijan to ensure the safety of Armenians wishing to return to Nagorno-Karabakh, a region from which they were forcibly displaced by Azerbaijan, in September earlier this year. The ICJ's decision, issued on Friday, the 17th of November, calls on Azerbaijan to allow those who left Nagorno-Karabakh after the 19th of September and want to return to do so in a safe and unhindered manner. It also protects those wishing to stay, ensuring they are free from force or intimidation. The court further instructs Azerbaijan to safeguard registration, identity, and property documents and submit a report within eight weeks detailing the measures taken to implement these provisional proceedings. This decision is part of a case brought by Armenia, alleging that Azerbaijan violated an international convention against racial discrimination concerning Nagorno-Karabakh. Even though ICJ decisions are legally binding, the court lacks enforcement authority.

A few miles west of Nagorno Karabakh, the Turkish parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee postponed a vote on Sweden's NATO membership bid, delaying the enlargement of the alliance. This comes after eighteen months of waiting, during which Turkey demanded terrorism-related concessions from Sweden. The committee, controlled by Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (or AKP), will hold further discussions and may revisit the bill next week. Turkey's objections to Sweden's NATO membership were based on Sweden's perceived protection of individuals Turkey considers terrorists and defense trade embargoes. While Hungary has also not ratified Sweden's NATO membership, Turkey is regarded as the main obstacle to Sweden's accession to the alliance, particularly concerning its role in bolstering defenses in the Baltic Sea region.

Moving on to our nuke watch, the International Atomic Energy Agency (or IAEA) has released two confidential reports that highlight Iran's increasing accumulation of uranium, which has been treated to reach a purity of 60%. This level of enrichment is enough for three potential nuclear bombs if further processed. Iran's actions have raised concerns among current and former UN inspectors, who fear that the Middle East's ongoing turmoil provides Iran with an opportunity to advance towards a nuclear weapons capability. The reports also mention Iran's removal of monitoring cameras at nuclear facilities and its refusal to allow IAEA inspectors to work inside the country. The IAEA's Board of Governors may censure Iran for its non-compliance, but it's uncertain if this will have any impact due to divisions within the UN. Experts worry that Iran could exploit these divisions and the regional instability to make further advances in its nuclear program.

In Southeast Asia, China is hosting a joint military exercise with five members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (or ASEAN), including Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, Laos, and Vietnam. The exercise, named Peace and Friendship-twenty twenty-three, can be considered an attempt by China to build its image and show its military strength in a region where it is expanding its influence. The drills focus on counterterrorism and maritime security and involve land and sea-based activities. While some experts suggest that Cambodia and certain ASEAN members are aligning more closely with China, others see their participation as an opportunity to learn from China about modern defense technology and strengthen regional cooperation for combatting piracy and other maritime crimes.

In other news, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed Ukraine's interest in establishing a strategic partnership with African countries. He proposed a meeting between Ukraine and the African Union to further strengthen relations between the two regions. Zelensky emphasized the importance of mutual respect for territorial integrity, sovereignty, language, and traditions in building these partnerships. He also expressed his readiness to visit any African country. He highlighted the goal of achieving stability and peace in the world, emphasizing ending the conflict in Ukraine as a warning to potential aggressors.

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Court of Justice has made a significant ruling by concluding that Senegal did not infringe upon the rights of opposition leader Ousmane Sonko. This ruling pertains to the Senegalese Supreme Court's decision to overturn a prior ruling to include Sonko's name on voting ballots. Sonko took his case to the ECOWAS court, contending that Senegal had violated his human rights, emphasizing his right to legal defense and a fair trial.

This judgment is part of an intricate web of legal battles involving Ousmane Sonko, including serious allegations of rape, insurrection, and the dissolution of his opposition party. Throughout these legal disputes, Sonko has consistently voiced accusations that President Macky Sall is manipulating the legal system to stifle political competition—which President Sall vehemently refutes.

This ruling carries substantial implications, not only for Sonko but also for the broader political landscape in Senegal and the protection of individual rights in the West African region. It underscores the critical role of international institutions like ECOWAS in safeguarding the principles of justice, fairness, and democracy.

Tthe body of a woman found thirty-one years ago in Antwerp has been identified through the "Operation Identify Me" initiative launched by Belgian, Dutch, and German police, along with Interpol. She was a British national called Rita Roberts. She was identified after a member of her family recognized a tattoo on her left forearm and contacted Interpol and Belgian authorities through the Identify Me website. The case was referred to as "the woman with the flower tattoo." Rita Roberts had moved to Antwerp from Cardiff, Wales, in February nineteen ninety-two and last communicated with her family in May. The collaboration between authorities from different countries allowed her family to finally identify her, bringing some closure to a decades-old mystery.

In the energy market, the International Energy Agency (or IEA) has revised its oil demand growth projections for twenty twenty-three and twenty twenty-four, anticipating an increase in demand despite a slowdown in economic growth among major economies. The IEA cites strong US shipments and record demand from China in September as factors supporting its increased forecast for twenty twenty-three, projecting global demand to grow by 2.4 million barrels per day (or bpd), up from the previous estimate of 2.3 million bpd. For twenty twenty-four, the IEA has boosted its oil demand growth prediction to 930,000 bpd from 880,000 bpd, citing expectations of interest rate cuts and a recent decline in crude prices. However, this is still lower than the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries or OPEC's forecast of 2.25 million bpd for twenty twenty-four. The gap between the two forecasts highlights the uncertainty in predicting oil demand growth amid various factors such as improved energy efficiency, growing electric vehicle adoption, and structural changes in the energy landscape.

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