MULTILATERAL: An Airspace Dispute & more – 10th Sep 2024

Saluton from BA! This is the Rorshok Multilateral Update from the 10th of September twenty twenty-four. A summary of what's going down in the world's major multilateral institutions.

Romania and Latvia, NATO members allied with Ukraine in its fight against Russia, said that Russian drones crossed into their airspace. Romania reported that a drone from Russia entered its territory early Sunday the 8th during nighttime strikes over the Danube River in Ukraine. A day earlier, Latvia stated that a drone had crashed in the eastern region of the country. This is not the first that Russian warplanes have entered NATO’s airspace since the war against Ukraine broke out almost three years ago. Similar instances have prompted NATO policymakers to harshly criticize Russia’s war effort as a threat to wider Europe.

Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to have other ripple effects in European politics: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban argued that the European Union should focus on deeper cooperation in economic and defense matters, while avoiding cooperation and unity on issues like migration, where significant disagreements exist among member states. On Friday the 6th, Orban warned that trying to enforce unity on such issues could lead to fragmentation within the EU, and he said that he doubted that Russia and Ukraine had a genuine desire for peace. Still, Orban emphasized the importance of keeping communication channels open if Europe wants to help end the conflict in Ukraine.

Also on Friday, The UN Security Council began deliberating a proposal to prolong the international security mission supporting Haiti in its battle against armed gangs and consider turning it into a formal UN peacekeeping operation. Originally authorized for a one-year period, the Multinational Security Support mission is set to end in early October but has achieved limited success due to a lack of personnel on the ground and funding that has fallen far short of expectations. Multinational Security Support missions through the UN are generally coordinated when the Security Council determines the need for a unified effort to reduce the human toll and international risk of escalating conflict. There are about ten active missions of this type.

Also concerning the Americas, the Pan American Health Organization, which is part of the UN, launched the Time to Act on Dementia campaign on Wednesday the 4th. With ten million new cases each year, many people remain unaware of how to lower their risks or how to properly support those diagnosed. The organization has created the campaign primarily to raise awareness and destigmatize the common health issue among older people in the Americas. The campaign specifically aims to increase awareness and bring unique messages to policymakers, healthcare practitioners, the general public, and even those living with dementia or close to those with dementia.

Andrei Rodrigues, Brazil’s Federal Police Director General and Morgan Doyle from the Inter-American Development Bank, or IDB, signed an agreement to strengthen efforts against organized crime and environmental threats in the Amazon on Wednesday the 4th. The partnership aims to improve regional security through advanced crime-solving technologies, new police intelligence systems, specialized training, and pilot projects. Rodrigues emphasized that the IDB’s support has been crucial for key police initiatives and expressed hopes to expand these efforts across borders, focusing on coordinated strategies to safeguard the Amazon and enhance security throughout the region. Previous efforts to reduce organized crime and environmental threats included specific initiatives to cut back on illegal logging, mining, and drug trafficking, which often involve powerful criminal networks. These efforts also include protecting indigenous communities, preserving biodiversity, and enforcing laws against deforestation to address both the social and ecological impacts of such activities.

Moving onto the Middle East: on Friday the 6th the International Criminal Court, or ICC, revealed that it has closed its case against Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas leader who was killed in Iran earlier this summer. In May, the ICC announced that it would begin to seek arrest warrants for Haniyeh, as well as Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, and military chief Mohammed Al-Masri. The warrants for Sinwar and Al-Masri are still active. Chief prosecutor Karim Khan had argued that there were grounds to suspect their involvement in war crimes. The ICC typically closes proceedings against deceased alleged international criminals, as the organization focuses on bringing justice to people who present international threats to peace and stability.

For our last story on Africa this week, on Sunday the 8th, the World Health Organization reported that the civil war in Sudan has claimed over 20,000 lives, highlighting the severity of the conflict. Since mid-April twenty twenty-three, Sudan has been engulfed in a war following a power struggle between its leading generals, which has resulted in one of the world's most dire humanitarian situations. While the World Health Organization is not directly a diplomatic body that has the power to resolve violent conflicts, the research it conducts on the human cost of a conflict and the aid it can bring to people in need can influence international policymakers to address clashes directly.

In Asia, on Friday the 7th, China engaged in a series of naval activities, including joint drills and warship visits, with multiple countries in the Association of South East Asian Nations or ASEAN. The exercises are particularly notable given that ASEAN nations have sometimes sparred with China over its handling of border disputes in the South China Sea. China’s aggression has worried multilateral leaders about long-term peace prospects as the country has built up its naval power in recent years.

Kazakh President Tokayev met with Gilbert Houngbo, the Director General of the International Labor Organization, or ILO, on Thursday the 5th. Tokayev underscored the organization's critical role in advancing social justice worldwide and noted that Kazakhstan has already ratified key ILO conventions on workers' rights, and said that the country is committed to furthering cooperating. Kazakhstan has previously taken ILO conventions or recommended labor practices, and turned them into laws.

In a new economic outlook, the World Trade Organization, or WTO, revealed on Thursday the 5th that global trade volumes have increased by 1% compared to the previous quarter. Despite this positive trend, the WTO cautioned that shifting monetary policies in advanced economies and weakening export orders are creating ongoing uncertainty. This backdrop is affecting Indian exports, which have struggled with decreased demand from Western markets. Rising trade volumes can lead to greater economic opportunities, job creation, and improved standards of living, particularly in emerging markets. Additionally, it suggests stronger international economic cooperation and a more robust global supply chain, which can enhance resilience against future disruptions. However, increased trade volumes also bring challenges, such as managing trade imbalances, protecting labor rights, and ensuring sustainable practices.

While trade is an important metric for economic health globally, food prices are also a key measure of the population’s welfare worldwide. On Friday the 6th, the Food and Agriculture Organization revealed that its global food price index fell slightly in August. Reduced costs for sugar, meat, and cereals prompted the decline, which counterbalanced higher prices for dairy products and vegetable oils. In February, the index hit a three-year low as food prices eased from the record highs that were reached in March twenty twenty-two following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

For our final story this week, Saturday the 7th marked the 5th International Day of Clean Air for Blue Skies led by the UN Environmental Program. The day is meant to raise awareness and bring about action to combat air pollution. According to the UN agency, almost every human being breathes at least somewhat polluted air, which contributes to millions of deaths annually. The most affected groups include women, children, and the elderly, with air pollution now the second leading cause of early death globally.

And that’s it for this week! Thank you for joining us!

We’ll be taking a short break but we will be back on the 16th!

See you!