MULTILATERAL: Crude Oil Prices Decrease & more – 3rd Sep 2024

Saluton from BA! This is the Rorshok Multilateral Update from the 3rd of September twenty twenty-four. A summary of what's going down in the world's major multilateral institutions.

On Wednesday the 28th of August, Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s Secretary-General, defended Ukraine's recent attacks into Russia's Kursk region, calling them a legitimate form of self-defense. The remarks were his first public response to Ukraine's surprise move into Russian territory, which began on the 6th of August and caught both Vladimir Putin and Kyiv's allies off guard. Stoltenberg argued that Ukraine has the right to protect itself, even beyond its own borders, under international law. He also clarified that NATO had no prior knowledge of the operation and was not involved in the planning of the offensive by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Stoltenberg emphasized that NATO played no role in Ukraine's decision-making regarding the incursion, despite frequent Russian accusations that NATO allies of Ukraine have encouraged aggression into Russian territory.

Speaking of Ukraine, Donald Tusk, the Polish Prime Minister, said that Poland will not endorse Ukraine's application to join the European Union unless the country takes steps to address the historical grievances related to the wartime atrocities committed by Ukrainian nationalists against Poles during World War II. For instance, back then, there were some Ukrainians who collaborated with Germans to attack Polish minority groups.

Still, Poland has been a key ally to Ukraine since Russia's invasion in February twenty twenty-two, and insists that its support is based on a shared interest in countering Russian aggression, which it sees as vital to its own security. Tusk has made similar comments regarding Ukraine’s EU aspirations before, but reiterated them on Friday the 30th.

The politics of the war in Ukraine are impacting national relations with multilateral organizations globally. For instance, on Friday the 30th of August, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry urged Mongolian officials to arrest Russian President Vladimir Putin during his visit on Tuesday the 3rd of September. Mongolia, a member of the International Criminal Court, issued an arrest warrant for Putin.

In Azerbaijan, a regional leader of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, or OSCE, observed closely the polling activities across the nation, as the presidential elections took place on Sunday the 1st of September. Invited by the Azerbaijani government, the team of international experts from various OSCE member countries arrived on the 30th of July to assess every element of the electoral process. The mission aimed to develop a detailed assessment of how the elections are being managed, and ultimately found that the vote was largely undemocratic due to the restricted political environment of the country which benefitted the ruling party, and allowed it to win handily.

On Wednesday the 28th, of August, the UN Security Council voted unanimously to extend the mandate of the U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon, or UNIFIL, for another year. The United States, a key ally of Israel, suggested that the mission's mandate may need adjustments in the future, although the US representative for the UN was vague about what the specific adjustments would be. The UNIFIL was established in nineteen seventy-eight and monitors the border between Lebanon and Israel. The UN Security Council reviews and renews its mandate each year, and the current authorization expired on Saturday the 31st of August.

The extension comes just days after an intense exchange of fire between Hezbollah and the Israeli military, one of the most severe in the last ten months, raising concerns that the ongoing conflict in Gaza could potentially spread across the region.

Also concerning the Middle East, Palestine's Mission to the UN announced on Friday the 30th of August, that it will take part in the 79th session of the UN General Assembly with an official seat for the first time. This new position is the result of a new resolution recently adopted by the General Assembly, which enhances Palestine's rights and privileges. While many nations in the UN have been pushing for some recognition of Palestinian statehood, the United States and Israel have been against such a proposal.

For our last story on the Middle East, on Monday the 1st of September, the International Monetary Fund or IMF approved a $800 million US dollars disbursement to Egypt as part of an $8 billion dollar loan program intended to stabilize the country's economy. This release of funds reflects the IMF’s positive assessment of recent economic improvements in Egypt, noting a reduction in inflation and achievement of fiscal targets since the last review in March. Despite these advances, the IMF warned that Egypt still faces significant challenges, including ongoing regional conflicts like the Gaza-Israel situation, and tensions in the Red Sea.

Next, on Friday the 30th of August, the Food and Agriculture Organization, or FAO, awarded Indonesian President Jokowi the Agricola Medal, the highest accolade in the food sector. The president stressed the government's role in ensuring food availability and affordability, asserting that food security is a crucial priority for the nation. He emphasized the importance of achieving food sovereignty and independence, especially given the current global uncertainties.

Moving on, a study released on Tuesday the 2nd of September reveals that more than 4.5 trillion cigarette butts are discarded worldwide each year. According to a subgroup of the Association of South East Asian States, nations in the region spend nearly $10 billion US dollars annually managing the marine pollution and waste resulting from tobacco packaging and cigarette butts, with these last ones being the most littered item worldwide, often ending up in oceans, rivers, and streets. Toxins from cigarettes can leach into soil and water, harming aquatic life and contaminating ecosystems. Additionally, cigarette waste contributes to microplastic pollution, which poses long-term threats to wildlife and food chains. This waste also poses a fire hazard in dry environments, further exacerbating its negative impact on the environment.

In other news, on Wednesday the 28th of August, Amy Pope, the Director General of the International Organization for Migration, urged that more countries develop migration pathways for individuals affected by climate change. She added that the Pacific region is expected to face extreme weather events that will have global repercussions. Pope highlighted Australia as a trailblazer, having established a unique visa category for climate-vulnerable individuals.

Onto the Americas: also on Wednesday, the Inter-American Development Bank made a new master services deal with Excella, a prominent Agile technology and innovation firm. The agreement allows Excella to contribute to the modernization of the bank’s Convergence platform, which manages its loans, grants, and technical assistance aimed at reducing poverty and inequality in the region.

And to wrap up this episode, some updates on oil. Crude oil prices fell significantly on Monday the 1st of September, after a report was released outlining that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries or OPEC might increase production in October. There’s a possible partial reversal of the production cuts that were put in place earlier this year. Even though the OPEC had previously suggested that a rollback could occur if market conditions, particularly oil prices, were favorable, the potential for higher output has been a concern for oil markets.

Aaand that’s it for this week! Thank you for joining us!

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