MULTILATERAL: Economic Growth Forecasted & more – 10th Dec 2024

Saluton from BA! This is the Rorshok Multilateral Update from the 10th of December twenty twenty-four. A summary of what's going down in the world's major multilateral institutions.

To begin this week, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development released a report on Wednesday the 4th projecting consistent economic growth for the next two years, though challenges remain. It predicts that the GDP growth will increase annually over three percent, with inflation in member countries dropping due to tight monetary policies. The predictions show that growth will vary globally, with slower gains in the US, the Eurozone, Japan, and China. The organization puts our regular reports on global politics and economics, with this being one of the more positive outlooks they have released recently.

Since we mentioned Europe, Ukraine unsuccessfully called for a quick membership invitation during a foreign ministers’ meeting on Tuesday the 3rd. The country emphasized that joining NATO is crucial for its security and would counter Russia’s justification for war. While the alliance reaffirmed Ukraine’s eventual membership as irreversible, no timeline or invitation was issued due to a lack of consensus among the thirty-two members.

The biggest uncertainty regarding Ukrainian NATO membership is the United States, as President-elect Trump has hinted that the United States will take a smaller role in NATO and has even proposed a peace plan for Ukraine that would involve ceding territory to Russia.

In other news, Tomoko Akane, the International Criminal Court President, condemned Russia for issuing arrest warrants against the Court’s officials investigating Vladimir Putin’s actions in Ukraine on Monday the 2nd. She called these moves disgraceful, highlighting that the officials acted within their legal duties. Moscow’s actions were retaliatory after the court issued a warrant for Putin, and entirely unjustified.

Arrest warrants for global leaders have become more common recently, with the International Criminal Court also issuing warrants for Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.

On Thursday the 5th, EU officials ordered TikTok to retain all data tied to Romania's recent presidential election amid allegations of Moscow's interference. Romania's intelligence agencies said that the right-wing candidate in the recent election benefited from an online campaign orchestrated by Russia, involving fake accounts on media like TikTok.

The Romanian elections have been a point of controversy, as the country’s courts annulled the election due to alleged fraud and foreign interference.

Also on Friday, The UN Security Council approved a resolution ensuring that sanctions on groups like ISIS and Al-Qaeda don't block humanitarian aid. Championed by Switzerland and the US, the resolution allows essential resources to flow to those in need without easing sanctions on the groups themselves. Officials highlighted its importance in addressing unintended challenges that sanctions create for aid workers, emphasizing the collective responsibility to prioritize humanitarian efforts while maintaining security measures.

Onto Africa: the World Health Organization, or WHO, sent a rapid response team to investigate the spread of Disease X in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where over 400 cases have been reported. According to a statement by the WHO released on Sunday the 8th, the illness, marked by flu-like symptoms, has led to thirty-one deaths, and can be very dangerous to children. The outbreak is in a remote area with limited access due to poor infrastructure and heavy rains, complicating efforts to track cases.

Military officers from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia participated in a training on civil-military relations. The session focused on improving cooperation between military forces and local communities, emphasizing peacebuilding, human rights, and the importance of understanding military officers' roles in promoting stability. This initiative supports ongoing efforts to contribute to Somalia's long-term security and development.

Next up, the Central Bank of Libya wrapped up meetings with the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, in Tunis, to prepare for future national reforms on Friday the 6th. The talks focused on Libya's economy and how to improve policies related to banking, finance, and trade. The IMF commended the Central Bank for improving the banking system and electronic payments.

Recall that the IMF sometimes holds talks with nations that require economic assistance and helps them to prevent any future economic catastrophes.

In Asia, the first week of hearings in a key international climate case concluded at the UN's top court in The Hague on Friday the 6th. The case, led by island nations including Vanuatu, seeks to clarify the legal obligations of countries to combat climate change and the consequences of harmful actions. While non-binding, the court's opinion could shape global climate policies, particularly for vulnerable nations facing rising seas.

Vanuatu has experienced some of the worst effects of climate change, and its residents are hoping that the ongoing court case could result in meaningful change that could reduce the effects of climate change globally.

On Tuesday the 3rd, Bangladesh's Commerce Adviser discussed the country's commitment to implementing conventions from the International Labor Organization with Michael Miller, the EU Ambassador, in the capital city Dhaka. They also covered topics like trade, economic cooperation, and tackling rising commodity prices. Miller expressed support for a free trade agreement and EU investment in Bangladesh. He also offered assistance in recovering laundered funds through logistical support and expert advice.

On another note, on Monday the 2nd, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the World Trade Organization’s chief, called on middle powers like Brazil, India, Japan, and Turkey to unite to defend global free trade as the US and China prepare for a new trade war. Even though President-elect Trump has not given a consistent or specific plan for how he aims to punish China through trade and tariffs, the world is bracing for the economic chaos that could ensue from a second Trump presidency.

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stressed the importance of building a coalition to support the multilateral trading system and engaging in joint diplomacy to maintain open trade relations. She also emphasized that such a coalition could be crucial for safeguarding global trade amidst increasing tensions.

On Monday the 9th, Mohamad Hasan, the Deputy Prime Minister of Malaysia, highlighted the country’s preparedness to lead the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, next year. Malaysia aims to use its leadership role to address key regional challenges, such as economic recovery post-pandemic and improving the association’s collective global competitiveness. The country is also focused on strengthening the ASEAN Economic Community and improving the association’s influence in global forums.

In some updates from the Americas, on Friday the 6th, the International Organization for Migration announced a new strategy to support the integration and stabilization of refugees and migrants in Latin America and the Caribbean. The plan addresses critical issues such as access to healthcare, education, and formal labor markets. With almost five million Venezuelans already integrated, this strategy aims to foster socioeconomic inclusion through coordinated support from host governments and international partners, requiring more than a billion US dollars for its first year.

On the same day, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution to combat the trafficking of cultural property and support the return of stolen artifacts to their countries of origin. Supported by over 140 nations, the resolution emphasizes the importance of the dangers of trafficking, especially in conflict zones, where it funds crime and terrorism. The adoption of the resolution aims to protect global traditions and heritage.

For our final story this week, which also took place on Friday, the Food and Agriculture Organization reported that in November, global food prices reached their highest point in nineteen months. Rising palm, soy, and sunflower oil costs were key drivers, while cereal prices dropped due to favorable harvest conditions and reduced demand.

Aaand that’s it for this week! Thank you for joining us!

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See you next week!