MULTILATERAL: Growing Threats from Russia & more – 17th Dec 2024

Saluton from BA! This is the Rorshok Multilateral Update from the 17th of December twenty twenty-four. A summary of what's going down in the world's major multilateral institutions.

For our first story, Mark Rutte, NATO’s chief, emphasized the need for a wartime mindset to address growing threats from Russia. Speaking in Brussels on Thursday the 12th, he warned that NATO isn't ready for challenges anticipated in the next four to five years. He also highlighted risks like cyberattacks and China's opaque military expansion, calling for innovation and unity among industries and governments.

One of the challenges coming up will be the United States not being as involved in NATO politics, as the incoming Trump administration has indicated that it will take a backseat in the organizaiton, especially if Trump continues to believe other countries are not contributing as much as they should. As Trump’s term will be for four years, this may be why Rutte emphasized the same time frame.

Russia and Ukraine continue to take up much of the attention of multilateral organizations: a new report from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe reveals a worsening human rights situation in Ukraine, driven by escalating hostilities and Russian aerial strikes targeting critical infrastructure. The report, released on Friday the 13th, highlights a significant rise in civilian casualties and a deepening humanitarian crisis, especially as coordinated attacks on energy facilities and grain terminals lead to widespread blackouts and resource shortages.

While the international community has known that Russia’s attacks on Ukraine have had a horrible impact on civilians, including many casualties, the report may motivate countries to aid Ukraine even more.

In other news, several EU countries, including Austria, Germany, and Sweden, decided to pause asylum processes for Syrian migrants on Thursday the 12th after Bashar al-Assad's regime fell. For context, Syrian rebel forces managed to take control of the country in a surprise offensive that stunned the world.

Some countries in Europe that have been eager to curb immigration for years are using the change in power as a reason to curb immigration. Despite these measures, deportations are not planned, as the European Commission maintains Syria is not currently safe for returns. German officials emphasized the need to evaluate Syria’s evolving political and security situation before considering any repatriation plans.

On Friday the 13th, The U.N. Security Council expressed strong concern over the Taliban's recent ban on medical education for Afghan women, warning it could deprive millions of essential healthcare. The council condemned the Taliban's ongoing restrictions on women, including bans on higher education, economic participation, and public life.

More about the UN, as the General Assembly passed a resolution calling for an unconditional and immediate ceasefire in Gaza with a vote of 158-9 on Wednesday the 11th. The US and Israel opposed it. The resolution also demands the release of all hostages and access to humanitarian aid in Gaza. This non-binding measure follows a vetoed resolution in the Security Council and comes amid ongoing conflicts since Hamas’s attack on Israel on the 7th of October, twenty twenty-three.

Since the resolution is non-binding, it takes the form of a kind of statement from the countries that voted for and against it. While most countries have already made their stances on Israel and Gaza known, these kinds of votes still happen from time to time. Since the resolution was more of a statement, there was no need for unanimity.

The International Court of Justice will soon release a verdict on a landmark case on climate change. The case, requested by the UN General Assembly, seeks clarification on global legal obligations to combat climate change and protect vulnerable nations. On Friday the 13th, a lawyer from Tuvalu, an island nation that has been significantly affected by climate change, urged action to help the island and others like it to be protected by other nations from the effects of climate change.

Turning to Africa, on Sunday the 15th, leaders from the Economic Community of West African States gathered for a summit focusing on security and the exit of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger (which are governed by military juntas) from the block. These countries that want to exit the organization are saying that their sanctions are unfair and the union is too close to France. Senegal’s President Faye reported progress in talks with the breakaway states. The exit will take effect in January twenty twenty-five, with the three nations now aligned in the Alliance of Sahel States.

On Thursday the 12th, the African Union called on Ethiopia and Somalia to implement an agreement designed to ease tensions over Ethiopia's access to the sea. This followed a dispute sparked by Ethiopia's deal with Somaliland to lease a coastal stretch for a port and military base. Somalia opposed the deal, fearing it threatened its sovereignty. After Turkish-brokered talks, Ethiopia and Somalia reached an agreement, with technical discussions planned for next year, aiming to secure Ethiopia's long-desired sea access.

In economic news, The International Monetary Fund, or IMF, announced it would release almost 200 million US dollars to Rwanda after completing its review of the country's support programs on Friday the 13th. The IMF confirmed Rwanda's economic growth forecast at about 8% for twenty twenty-four and 7% for twenty twenty-five. The economy has shown resilience, bolstered by strong growth in key sectors and agricultural recovery. However, external vulnerabilities, such as a widening current account deficit and exchange rate pressures, continue to challenge Rwanda's economy.

Over to Asia, on Monday the 9th, Karim Khan, the International Criminal Court Prosecutor, warned that escalating violations of international law in Myanmar could lead to prosecution. The Court’s investigation focuses on Myanmar's military's crimes against the Rohingya ethnic group during the twenty sixteen-twenty seventeen crackdown.

The government of Laos announced plans to expand social security coverage for informal workers and the self-employed through a national fund on Thursday the 12th. The reason behind the policy change follows a study from the International Labor Organization, which highlighted challenges like low enrolment rates for social programs. With informal workers making up almost all of the workforce, the reports suggest improving outreach, linking business licenses with registration, and addressing barriers faced by home-based workers to increase participation.

On an unrelated note, The Food and Agriculture Organization launched a report on Wednesday the 11th emphasizing the urgency of food security and global cooperation to address hunger and malnutrition. Challenges like climate change, wars, and COVID-19 have made global food security goals harder to achieve. The report noted that in twenty twenty-three, 757 million people faced hunger, with food insecurity rising sharply since twenty nineteen. According to the organization, this worsening trend highlights the ongoing challenge of fulfilling the fundamental right to food.

The Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered its twenty twenty-four and twenty twenty-five global oil demand growth forecasts, marking its fifth consecutive downward revision. The revised twenty twenty-four growth estimate, published on Wednesday the 11th, shows weaker oil demand from China, India, among other regions.

In the Americas, the Inter-American Development Bank, or IDB, and Brazil's Ministry of Transportation launched a project to revitalize over 6,000 miles (or 10,000 kilometers) of railroads, focusing on sections returning from private concessionaires. The initiative, announced on Wednesday the 11th, aims to improve Brazil’s transportation infrastructure, promote regional development, and offer low-carbon alternatives to traditional transport. Studies will assess the operational potential of these rail sections, including key routes like São Luís to Fortaleza.

Annette Killmer, an IDB representative, highlighted the project's goal to improve logistics, sustainability, and Brazil’s economic competitiveness.

And to wrap up this edition, The International Organization for Migration projects that Venezuelan migrants and refugees will contribute massively to Peru's economy in twenty twenty-four, increasing economic value by over half a billion in US dollars. The study, released Thursday the 12th, found that Venezuelans' fiscal contributions will make up 1.3% of Peru's tax revenue, with most of their spending staying within the country.

Aaand that’s it for this week! Thank you for joining us!

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