MULTILATERAL:Steadfast Defender & more – 23rd Jan 2024

Saluton from BA! This is Rorshok’s Multilateral Update from the 23rd of January twenty twenty-four A summary of what's going down in the world's major multilateral institutions.

In February, NATO will launch its largest military exercise since the Cold War: the Steadfast Defender, which involves approximately 90,000 troops. NATO's plans include practicing defense strategies in response to a hypothetical "Russian attack." These exercises, scheduled to run until May, aim to showcase NATO's ability to rapidly deploy forces to reinforce European defense. The drills also show the increased tensions surrounding the Baltic region, Eastern Europe, and Scandinavia. The UK is particularly active in this drill, deploying troops, advanced fighter jets, and naval assets.

Moving on to Africa, recall that Ethiopia signed a Memorandum of Understanding (or MoU) with Somaliland, aiming to secure access to the Red Sea and diversify seaport access. However, Somalia declared the MoU null and void.

Somalia redirected an Ethiopian Airlines plane bound for Hargeisa, the capital of Somaliland, raising concerns about escalating tensions in the volatile Horn of Africa. Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre accused Ethiopia of attempting to control Red Sea entrances, posing a threat to global trade and navigation as it disrupts safe entry on one of the busiest and strategic trade routes in the world. The African Union's (or AU’s) Peace and Security Council (or PSC) reaffirmed its commitment to preserving the unity, territorial integrity, independence, and sovereignty of all member states, including Ethiopia and Somalia.

On Wednesday, the 17th, the PSC urged Ethiopia and Somalia to de-escalate tensions. The PSC also requested the AU Commission's Chairperson to deploy the AU High Representative for the Horn of Africa, Olusegun Obasanjo, to facilitate dialogue between the two nations.

On the same day in Europe, the Irish Government filed an inter-state case against the UK in the European Court of Human Rights (or ECHR) over the twenty twenty-three Legacy Act, aimed at addressing Northern Ireland's Troubles legacy, the thirty-year-old clash between the Irish Republican Army and royalist British forces that left more than 3,500 dead. The Irish government argues that the UK legislation would grant amnesty to individuals accused of committing atrocities during the Northern Ireland Troubles. The Legacy Act discontinues current methods of investigating Troubles-related killings, providing immunity to former British soldiers and ex-paramilitaries if they cooperate with a new "information recovery" body.

According to a press release by the ECHR issued on Friday the 19th of January, the Irish government challenged the legislation on the grounds that it violates several rights included in the European Convention on Human Rights. Victims' families and individuals have also challenged the legislation, arguing that it restricts access to justice. The law faces opposition from Northern Ireland's main political parties, US politicians, and human rights groups, while British military veterans' groups support it.

In the Davos World Economic Forum that ran between Monday the 15th and Friday the 19th, Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (or IAEA), expressed concerns about Iran's rapidly advancing uranium enrichment program and its refusal to allow inspections. Grossi said that Iran, as a member of the nuclear proliferation treaty, must follow the treaty’s rules. He pointed out that Iran is enriching uranium at levels very close to those required for weapons. This comes at a time when tensions are high in the Middle East due to the conflict in Gaza and tensions in the Red Sea region caused by Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. Even though Iran says it uses its nuclear program for peaceful purposes, many Western countries believe that it may be seeking to build nuclear weapons. Grossi said that regardless of Iran's intentions, it is not fulfilling its commitments under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and is obstructing inspections by not allowing inspectors to do their jobs based on their nationality.

Let’s go to the Middle East and talk about the long-lasting conflict in Gaza. Indonesia and Slovenia have expressed their support for a case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (or ICJ) concerning violations of Palestinian rights. Both countries intend to participate in the proceedings seeking an advisory opinion on Israel's control and policies in occupied Palestinian territories. The UN General Assembly had previously requested the ICJ to state an advisory opinion on whether Israeli policies toward Palestinians violated international law. Slovenia cited Israel's ongoing conflict in Gaza and increased violence in the occupied West Bank as reasons for its participation. Indonesia's Foreign Minister also emphasized the Palestinian right to self-determination and opposed Israel's occupation of Palestine. The hearings will begin in February, with South Africa's separate case against Israel for alleged genocide in Gaza also awaiting a court decision.

More about the Gaza conflict, according to a report from the World Bank, approximately 45% of residential buildings in the Gaza Strip have been completely destroyed since the war between Israel and Hamas began.

In energy news, on Thursday the 18th, the International Energy Agency (or IEA) raised its twenty twenty-four global oil demand growth forecast for the third consecutive month, predicting an increase of 1.24 million barrels per day (or bpd) compared to twenty twenty-three. The IEA cited "macroeconomic headwinds, tighter efficiency standards, and an expanding electric vehicle fleet" as factors contributing to slower growth in twenty twenty-four. The agency's projections are lower than those of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (or OPEC), which anticipates strong demand growth in twenty twenty-four and twenty twenty-five due to higher global economic growth and intense activity in China. OPEC's forecast for twenty twenty-four demand growth is approximately 1 million bpd higher than the IEA's estimate for the same year.

Let's now turn our attention to the unprecedented number of farmers across Europe who have launched widespread protests throughout the month. The demonstrations, spanning from France to Romania, have gained momentum, particularly in Germany, where thousands of tractors brought Berlin to a standstill. Some demonstrators are protesting against new taxes on tractor fuels, others against cuts in agricultural subsidies, competition posed by cheaper imports, among others. According to a BBC report, “Europe has been full of unhappy European farmers. They say prices will not cover costs. The EU agrees – it is offering 500 million euros to help. But the farmers argue this is an inadequate measure.”

Our last stop is in Cairo, with the International Monetary Fund (or IMF) delegation in the Egyptian capital in order to discuss the country’s $3 billion dollar loan and reform program, while there are discussions about additional funding to ease the country's economic impact from the Gaza war. The conflict has affected Egypt's economy, leading to a decline in tourism bookings and natural gas imports, as well as attacks on Red Sea shipping, which have impacted Suez Canal revenues. Egypt's budget recorded a primary surplus for the July-to-December period in the fiscal year twenty twenty-three/twenty twenty-four, but the country expects a total deficit for the full fiscal year.

That’s it for this week! Thanks for joining us!

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