MULTILATERAL: Gaza Ruling & more – 30th Jan 2024

Saluton from BA! This is Rorshok’s Multilateral Update from the 30th of January twenty twenty-four A summary of what's going down in the world's major multilateral institutions.

On Friday, the 26th of January, The International Court of Justice (or ICJ), the UN's top court, ordered Israel to take all measures to prevent genocidal acts in Gaza but stopped short of telling it to halt the war. Recall that South Africa had asked the court to order Israel to stop military action straight away, pending a decision on whether Israel has committed genocide. Israel has rejected the accusation as "wholly unfounded." Friday's hearing at the ICJ at The Hague was the first time the judges issued a ruling as part of the case, which began two weeks ago. A verdict on the central allegation of genocide is expected to take much longer, possibly years.

On a related note, the UN Security Council will have a meeting on Wednesday the 31st to discuss the recent decision regarding the ICJ’s ruling on Gaza. Algeria, a member of the Security Council, called for this meeting, saying it's crucial to follow the ICJ's orders related to the Israeli occupation. Riyad Mansour, the Palestinian Authority Ambassador to the UN, said that implementing the ICJ's directives would require a ceasefire. He hinted that the Arab Group, represented by Algeria in the Security Council, might push for such a ceasefire.

On to the humanitarian dimension of the conflict in the Middle East, according to UNICEF, since the start of Israel's war on Gaza in October, more than 20,000 children have been born, averaging about one birth every ten minutes. Limited access to medical equipment has endangered the health of both the women giving birth and their children. The conflict has taken a toll on the population, with a reported 25,000 deaths, mainly among women and kids. Israel's blockade, infrastructure destruction, and restricted aid entry have worsened the situation, leading to malnutrition, growth issues, and other health problems among newborns and young children.

A few miles north in Turkey, the country’s parliament ratified on Thursday the 25th Sweden's accession to NATO. Even though sources from Washington stated that “the ratification of Sweden’s accession and the sale of F-16 jet fighters to Turkey are not interconnected”, it appears that the sale of the aircraft to Turkey will be included in a presidential letter to the Congress Defense Committee, giving the green light for the sale of eighty fighters. The last barrier between Sweden’s entry to NATO seems to be approval by Hungary.

Next up, The International Atomic Energy Agency (or IAEA) experts, led by Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi, are planning visits to Kyiv, Moscow, and the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (or ZNPP). At the plant, Grossi will monitor safety concerns stemming from the occupation by Russian troops with IAEA experts and engage in discussions with the Russian management. The critical issue at the ZNPP is the supply of water to cool its reactors, which became problematic after Russian forces destroyed the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant in June twenty twenty-three. The ZNPP is now relying on ground wells for water. Grossi will particularly assess the potential restart of reactors. The plant's location in Russian-occupied territory near the front lines of the war raises ongoing nuclear safety concerns.

In a less usual conversation regarding the same conflict, the European Union won’t confiscate frozen Russian central bank assets, citing legal risks. G7 members froze around $200 billion in Russian assets in Europe in response to Russia's twenty twenty-two invasion of Ukraine. Even though transferring these assets to Ukraine could alleviate Western financing pressure for the war effort, European officials are wary of the potential implications on the euro.

An anonymous EU official stated, "The confiscation of Russian capital will not happen. There is no agreement on this issue among EU member states."

Moving on to Africa, the Economic Community of West African States (or ECOWAS) said on Sunday the 28th of January, that even though the military juntas in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger announced their immediate withdrawal from the Community, it had not yet received any formal of the notification of the move.

Still, the sub-regional bloc said it is committed to restoring constitutional rule in these countries. ECOWAS underlined that Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali remain important members of the Community, and the Authority of Heads of State and Government will seek a negotiated solution to the political challenges in these nations.

In the Philippines, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. declared on Tuesday the 23rd that his government will not collaborate with the International Criminal Court (or ICC) investigation into his predecessor President Rodrigo Duterte's deadly drug war. Even though he said he wouldn't prevent ICC investigators from entering the Philippines, Marcos stated that government agencies would not be made accessible to them. He said that he does not recognize the ICC's jurisdiction in the Philippines and views it as a threat to the country's sovereignty. The ICC is examining alleged crimes against humanity committed by the former president’s drug war, which resulted in thousands of deaths, as law enforcement killed individuals who had drugs, regardless of the amount.

According to the International Energy Agency (or IEA) electricity demand is rising in China, India, and Southeast Asia due to data centers, artificial intelligence, and cryptocurrencies, with consumption potentially doubling by twenty twenty-six. Meanwhile, advanced economies like Europe or the US are seeing declining demand for electricity. The IEA's report also says that power from low-emission sources like wind, solar, and nuclear energy will meet growing global demand for the next three years. According to the document, renewables will surpass coal as a source of electricity by early twenty twenty-five. Global emissions will decrease by over 2% in twenty twenty-four, with further declines in twenty twenty-five and twenty twenty-six.

In an odd development, Interpol suggests opening virtual police stations in the metaverse to combat online crimes. The metaverse refers to 3D virtual worlds where users interact using avatars. Interpol has called for the establishment of online units that offer services such as reporting crimes, filing complaints, and hosting virtual community meetings. The report warns of an increase in crimes within virtual reality games and suggests that law enforcement officers maintain a "virtual presence in the metaverse" to address issues like sex offenses, child abuse, and terrorism. This proposal comes in response to concerns about metacrime—that is, new types of crimes emerging in virtual environments.

Aaaaaand that's it for this week. So you listen to us, ideally almost every week, but we don't actually know each other. Here's a chance to fix that. On Monday the 8th of April there is a total eclipse of the sun in Dallas, Texas, in the US. There will be events organized the whole weekend before. So on the off chance you can get here, send us an email or check the show notes for more information.

See you next week!