MULTILATERAL: UNRWA in Trouble & more – 20th Feb 2024

Saluton from BA! This is Rorshok’s Multilateral Update from the 20th of February twenty twenty-four. A summary of what's going down in the world's major multilateral institutions.

In a world where global challenges demand collective action, sixteen governments have chosen to suspend funding to the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (or UNRWA), a critical organization supporting those in need, particularly in Gaza. The decision follows allegations against a number of UNRWA staff that Israel claims they were involved in the attacks by Hamas on the 7th of October, leading to nine dismissals and ongoing investigations. However, the International Trade Union Confederation (or ITUC) strongly urges these governments to reconsider. ITUC General Secretary Luc Triangle stresses that cutting funds undermines vital support for Palestinians and calls for the restoration of funding. Additionally, he urges countries to step up and increase support for the underfunded UN agency.

On the same front, families of Israelis held hostage by Hamas since the 7th of October twenty twenty-three, seek the safe return of their loved ones and justice. These hostages were captured during a Hamas cross-border raid into southern Israel, triggering an Israeli military offensive in Gaza. Families and activists gathered in The Hague on Wednesday the 14th, appealing to the International Criminal Court (or ICC) for justice. Despite Israel's non-recognition of the ICC's jurisdiction, the Palestinian territories are ICC members. Karim Khan, the ICC Prosecutor, affirms jurisdiction over the events that took place on the 7th of October, and families are submitting legal communications supporting ICC action against Hamas leaders.

In the realm of geopolitics, on Saturday the 17th of February Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban signaled a potential positive turn in relations by suggesting the Hungarian parliament may ratify Sweden's NATO membership during its upcoming spring session. Sweden applied for NATO membership nearly two years ago, a strategic shift driven by Russia's military operations in Ukraine. However, Hungary, the sole NATO member yet to ratify Sweden's application, has strained relations with the United States and faced concerns from other allies, since Hungary tried to disrupt the EU’s funding towards Ukraine as well, indicating a worrying stance that is beneficial to Russia. Orban expresses optimism about resolving the dispute with Sweden, emphasizing efforts to rebuild trust between the two nations without specifying the exact measures taken.

Turning to pressing concerns in Haiti, UNICEF reports distressing incidents of fatal violence against children fleeing armed conflicts in downtown Port-au-Prince. Over the weekend, at least two children lost their lives, with many more sustaining injuries as violence escalates in the metropolitan area. Children are experiencing extreme danger, with once-safe spaces like playgrounds, schools, and homes turning into war zones. UNICEF highlights the alarming trend, estimating that 167 boys and girls suffered injuries or death from gunfire in twenty twenty-three. The escalation of violence in twenty twenty-four has led to hospital evacuations and displaced over 2,600 people. Sexual violence against children is also on the rise. UNICEF urgently calls for global attention and intervention, projecting that three million children in Haiti will require humanitarian aid due to escalating violence, malnutrition, cholera resurgence, and collapsing basic services.

In the United Nations, India raises critical questions about the decision-making dynamics in the UN Security Council, emphasizing the need for equity in global efforts to reform the Council. Ambassador Ruchira Kamboj, India's Permanent Representative to the UN, questions the prolonged dominance of the will of the five permanent members, the U.S, the UK, China, Russia and France, over the collective voice of 188 UN member states. Speaking at the Inter-Governmental Negotiations on Security Council Reform, Kamboj advocated for greater representation for regions like Asia, Latin America, and Africa, and called for a reevaluation of the existing power dynamics in the UN Security Council.

Economic developments also take center stage as oil prices experience a pause following the International Energy Agency's (or IEA) forecast of slowing demand. Brent crude futures dipped slightly to almost $83 dollars a barrel during last week, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures show a modest increase to around $78 a barrel. The US Commerce Department reported an almost 1% drop in retail sales in January, the largest fall since February twenty twenty-three. The IEA's monthly report indicates a waning momentum in global oil demand growth, leading to a revised twenty twenty-four growth forecast of 1.22 million barrels per day.

In the Horn of Africa, diplomatic tensions surface as Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud faces obstacles accessing the African Union (or AU) headquarters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The incident revolves around allegations that the Somali delegation, including President Mohamud, attempted to enter the AU premises with firearms without proper authorization. Ethiopia accuses Somalia of refusing assigned state security personnel and attempting entry with weapons. President Mohamud, in turn, accuses Ethiopia of harassment, linking it to Somalia's opposition to Ethiopia's recent Memorandum of Understanding (or MoU) with Somaliland.

Shifting to legal matters, the International Court of Justice (or ICJ) dismissed South Africa's urgent application for further measures against an alleged, according to the country’s case filed in court, “unprecedented military offensive against Rafah” by Israel. The ICJ emphasizes that Israel is bound to protect civilians and comply with its obligations under the Genocide Convention. South Africa had argued that Israel's military offensive breached the Genocide Convention and the ICJ's prior order. The court, however, deems new developments insufficient to warrant additional measures. Israel rejects South Africa's request as an outrageous distortion and accuses it of attempting to deny Israel the right to be heard.

The World Health Organization’s conference on tobacco control, COP10, grapples with disagreements and criticism. The EU's Directorate General for Health and Food Safety faces accusations of supporting proposals beyond its mandate from people that support alternative tobacco use (such as vaping, and heated tobacco) while Europe is moving towards a more harsh approach towards nicotine. Of course, a lot of the people positioned in favor of alternative tobacco products have faced allegations of working for or with the tobacco industry. The conference's exclusion of the press and stifling of debates on harm reduction, particularly the transition to vaping, draw scrutiny. Regulatory challenges in member states cause division within the EU with regard to addressing non-combustible cigarette alternatives.

In yet another significant geopolitical development, the governments of Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso announce plans to form a confederation following their withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (or ECOWAS). The decision to create a confederation, recommended by the countries' ministers of development affairs in November twenty twenty-three, became public during a meeting in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. The withdrawal from ECOWAS, citing illegal and inhumane sanctions, signals a shift in regional alliances. The current leaders of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, who ascended to power through successful coups, resist ECOWAS' demands for a transition to civilian rule.

And to close this edition, the World Bank has issued a warning about the lasting impact of lockdowns on education, stating that the disruption caused by lockdowns is likely to scar multiple generations. Norbert Schady, the chief economist for human development at the World Bank, warns that the children of individuals who missed out on school during the pandemic may face worse prospects than those born later. Young children, on average, learned nothing during lockdowns, creating an education gap that could persist into the next generation. Schady cites a study of the nineteen eighteen influenza pandemic, showing that children born within a year of the outbreak had lower academic achievement and income levels, with the impact lingering for decades. He emphasizes the need for policymakers to focus on teaching children fundamental skills in reading, writing, and arithmetic to address the widening learning gap.

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