MULTILATERAL: NATO’s Trump problem & more – 13th Feb 2024

Saluton from BA! This is Rorshok’s Multilateral Update from the 13th of February twenty twenty-four. A summary of what's going down in the world's major multilateral institutions.

The World Health Organization’s International Agency for Research on Cancer has recently disclosed concerning global cancer statistics. In twenty twenty-two, a staggering 20 million new cancer cases and 9.7 million cancer-related deaths were reported worldwide. Lung cancer topped the list with 12.4% of new cases, followed by a growth of 11.6% in female breast cancer and a growth of 9.6% in colorectal cancer.

Beyond the numbers, a World Health Organization’s (WHO) survey covering 115 countries revealed that only 39% have integrated cancer basics into their financed core health services. Notably, high-income countries show a 4 to 7 times higher likelihood of including lung cancer services. Dr. Bente Mikkelsen from WHO emphasizes ongoing collaborations with 75+ governments to address these disparities and advocate for comprehensive global cancer care policies. Stay tuned for more about this complex global health issue.

Last week's clashes in Senegal, which were a consequence of the postponed presidential election, led to the reported deaths of three individuals, including a 19-year-old high school student, a 23-year-old shopkeeper and a university student. The violent protests, driven by opposition parties and civil society groups against the election delay, saw Interior Minister Sidiki Kaba denying accusations of security forces' involvement in the fatalities.

The African Union has asked the Senegalese authorities to proceed with the election as soon as possible while the EU urges Senegal to uphold fundamental freedoms during the protests. President Macky Sall's decision to postpone the election, citing disputes over the candidate list and alleged corruption among constitutional judges, was endorsed by the Senegalese National Assembly. Opposition lawmakers were forcefully removed during the tense session. The Constitutional Council is expected to deliver a ruling on the matter in about a week.

Staying in Africa, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has urged Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso to reconsider their recent withdrawal from the regional bloc. ECOWAS Commission President Omar Alieu Touray emphasized the critical need for unity, stating that the bloc should stay together during these challenging times. He questioned the basis of the withdrawal, highlighting a lack of consideration for the withdrawal conditions outlined in the nineteen93 ECOWAS Revised Treaty and the potential implications on citizens.

The three countries, which are all led by military administrations, announced their withdrawal on the 28th of January, followed by official notifications on the 29th of January. ECOWAS Foreign ministers held a special meeting on the 8th of February, expressing concerns over the decisions. Nigerian Foreign Minister Yusuf Maitama Tuggar emphasized the importance of democratic governance and citizens' rights in finding solutions, stressing that the community is stronger together to address shared challenges like climate change, violent extremism, migration, and organized crime.

In a new page for the UN’s top court, Lebanese Judge Nawaf Salam secured the presidency of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), taking charge of the ongoing case where South Africa accuses Israel of genocidal intent. The ICJ, announced Salam's election emphasizing his tenure since twenty eighteen and past role as Beirut's envoy to the United Nations. On social media, Salam, now at the helm, asserts the weight of his responsibility in achieving international justice and upholding the rule of law.

At the same time, Ugandan Judge Julia Sebutinde was announced as the Vice Presidenct of the ICJ for a three-year term. Sebutinde, an ICJ member since twenty twelve and former judge at the Special Court for Sierra Leone, recently gained attention for her dissenting stance in a South Africa-filed case, accusing Israel of violating the "Genocide Convention" in the Gaza Strip.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated in a report on the 7th of February that it’s worried about India relying heavily on energy imports from distant places, saying it poses a risk to the country's energy security. They stress the need for India to maintain sufficient oil reserves to manage the volatility in the oil market. While acknowledging the benefits of diversifying oil sources, the IEA highlights the vulnerability of longer supply chains. They emphasize the importance of strategic petroleum reserves for India.

Predicting that India will be the top global user of oil by twenty thirty, the IEA also notes ongoing geopolitical tensions and the country's dependence on imports, underscoring the importance of secure supplies. Despite India's efforts to boost domestic production, the IEA anticipates relatively low oil output in the coming decade.

In an explosive remark on the 10th of February, former President Donald Trump suggested that he would "encourage" Russia to attack any NATO member that fails to meet its financial obligations to the alliance. Speaking at a rally, Trump recounted an incident where he told a NATO leader that he would not protect a nation behind on payments and would "encourage" aggressors to do as they wish. NATO members commit to defending each other if one is attacked.

The White House called Trump's comments "appalling and unhinged," stating that he was encouraging invasions of allies by murderous regimes. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg criticized the former president’s suggestion, stating that it undermines security and puts soldiers from NATO countries at risk. Trump has long criticized NATO and its financial burden on the U.S.

Moving on to the devastating conflict in the Middle East, UNICEF warns of a potential devastating turn in the Israel-Hamas conflict due to a military escalation in the southern Gaza city of Rafah. Israel is moving toward an anticipated ground invasion in the region. UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell stated that an escalation in Rafah, already strained by displaced people from other parts of Gaza, would be catastrophic, with over 600,000 children among the 1 million people in the densely populated city. Destruction of remaining infrastructure could lead to hunger and disease spikes.

UNICEF calls for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire, emphasizing adherence to international humanitarian law to protect civilians. Israel, amid airstrikes in Rafah, aims to evacuate the population as part of its offensive against Hamas.

The European Parliament has adopted its first resolution on the rule of law in Greece, expressing serious concerns about systemic violations under the European People’s Party (or EPP)-affiliated government of Kyriakos Mitsotakis since twenty nineteen. The resolution addresses threats to the rule of law, media freedom, and fundamental rights, including attacks on journalists, the use of spyware, the murder of investigative journalist Giorgos Karaivaz, and irresponsible governmental funding towards certain media.

Despite evidence and the involvement of other political groups, the EPP refused to support the resolution, deviating from its approach in resolutions on non-EPP governed countries. The Mitsotakis government has avoided scrutiny, refusing a meeting with Members of the European Parliament (or MEP) and dismissing calls for action on potential criminal liability. The Socialists and Democrats Party urge the European Commission to defend democracy and rights in Greece, emphasizing the need for transparency and addressing the wiretapping scandal. S&D MEP Cyrus Engerer criticizes the EPP for neglecting concerns and highlights the alarming situation of migrants and LGBTIQ+ individuals in Greece.

The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva expressed confidence in the global economic outlook, citing its resilience despite uncertainties related to war and geopolitics. In a speech at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, Georgieva mentioned the IMF's upcoming paper showing that phasing out explicit energy subsidies could save 336 billion dolars in the Middle East, equivalent to the combined economies of Iraq and Libya. She highlighted that eliminating regressive energy subsidies not only results in significant savings but also discourages pollution and enhances social spending.

Despite existing uncertainties, Georgieva stated that the global economy has demonstrated surprising resilience. However, she cautioned about the widening consequences of the conflict in Gaza, emphasizing the potential economic harm of an escalated conflict.

World Bank President Ajay Banga is focused on reforming the institution, citing challenges in reducing red tape, streamlining processes, and expediting deal approvals. Speaking at a Washington, D.C. event, Banga highlighted difficulties arising from the governance model, acknowledging the need for shareholder involvement in expenditure oversight but expressing concerns about an overload of rules. He cited over 1,100 rules governing the World Bank's International Development Association, creating a fragmented system challenging to scale. Banga aims to address these issues to enhance the institution's efficiency and responsiveness.

That’s it for this week! Thanks for joining us!

Last week we asked you to fill in a survey to get to know you and we got quite a few replies, thank you so so much ! We are very excited, tons of great ideas! We’ll be sharing the link to the survey one more time this week in the shownotes in case you didn’t see it. All respondents will be entered in a lottery to win a cruise in the Mediterranean… just kidding, it's in the South Pacific, but we would love to hear from you! Don’t be shy!

See you next week!