MULTILATERAL: Myanmar’s Struggling & more – 6th Feb 2024

Saluton from BA! This is Rorshok’s Multilateral Update from the 6th of February twenty twenty-four A summary of what's going down in the world's major multilateral institutions.

Myanmar's been in a real rough spot since twenty twenty-one, when the military, led by General Min Aung Hlaing, booted out the elected government. Fast forward three years, and the situation's still quite tense, with the military junta extending the country’s state of emergency on Wednesday the 31st of January to extend their time in power. The military's trying to keep a grip on things, but it's not going smoothly. Over 4,400 people have died, and more than 25,000 have been arrested since the takeover. Even though cities might seem okay, the countryside's struggling big time with basics like electricity and agriculture.

The U.N.'s ringing alarm bells, saying over two million people have been displaced. There's a call for the military to step down and for a return to democracy, but the junta's not showing signs of backing down. Diplomatic efforts, like those by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, haven't really moved the needle. Opposition forces are gaining ground, especially in the northern Shan state, capturing key areas.

Moving on to another dictatorship hotspot in Africa this time, as on Sunday the 28th of January, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, all under military rule, dramatically left Economic Community of West African States (or ECOWAS), signaling major shifts in West African politics. This move follows their formation of the Alliance of Sahel States (or AES) in twenty twenty-three, a defensive response to ECOWAS's threats of intervention and heavy sanctions. The AES countries, critical of ECOWAS's departure from Pan-Africanism and its alignment with foreign interests, particularly oppose the influence of France and the economic constraints of the Franc of the Financial Community of Africa (or CFA) franc, a common currency among these states. Following tough sanctions and asset freezes by ECOWAS, the AES departure reflects their rejection of external control and a desire for greater economic independence. With France withdrawing its military presence and these nations aligning with powers like Russia and China, this move challenges the regional status quo and could force African economic unions such as the West African Economic and Monetary Union to reconsider their strategies towards these states.

Karim Khan, The International Criminal Court (or ICC) Chief Prosecutor, warned the UN Security Council on Tuesday the 30th of January about potential war crimes by Sudan's military in Darfur. With a significant number of refugees fleeing to Chad, Khan stressed the situation's urgency and the risk of regional escalation. The Darfur conflict has led to allegations of murder, rape, and property destruction. The EU and the US have made accusations of genocide. The EU Council has imposed sanctions on entities linked to supporting the conflict.

In another devastating conflict, Michael Ryan, WHO's emergencies director, has raised serious concerns about the worsening situation in Gaza, while talking with Associated Press on Thursday the 1st. He warns that people are facing extreme hunger because getting humanitarian aid into the area is hard, and pointed out that the quality and quantity of food available have decreased.

An attack from Hamas on Israel triggered the devastating situation, leading to significant casualties and a tense hostage situation. Israel's forceful response has resulted in thousands of deaths in Gaza, with women and children being the majority of the victims. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO's head, is highlighting the enormous challenges in maintaining health services in Gaza. There's a growing risk of famine, and attempts to deliver food aid are often disrupted by the desperate need of the locals, stepping one over another in queues around food trucks because they are starving.

On the following day in the Netherlands, the International Court of Justice (or ICJ) announced that it is set to hear a case from Ukraine, challenging Russia's accusations of genocide in Eastern Ukraine, a pretext for its twenty twenty-two invasion. Ukraine lodged the case shortly after the invasion, accusing Russia of misusing the nineteen forty-eight Genocide Convention. The ICJ stated it can't rule directly on Russia's accusations but will determine if Ukraine indeed committed genocide. Reaching a final decision will probably take years.

Despite the ICJ not fully backing Ukraine's complaint, Anton Korynevych, Ukraine's ICJ representative, views the court's involvement as pivotal in addressing the allegations of a "mythical genocide." He also highlighted that the ICJ's earlier ruling in March twenty twenty-two, ordering Russia to stop its military actions in Ukraine, remains in effect, although Russia continues to defy it. Meanwhile, Ukraine recently won a separate legal victory at the ICJ, where the court said that Russia breached UN treaties against terrorism financing and discrimination.

While the ICJ was announcing its case, Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, met with the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (or OSCE) Chairperson-in-Office Ian Borg, where he urged action on Russia, which is kidnapping Ukrainian children, and taking hostages. Mélanie Joly, Canada’s Foreign Minister, also arrived in Kyiv, announcing a coalition to bring back deported Ukrainian children. The ICC has issued arrest warrants for Putin and Maria Lvova-Belova for war crimes relating to the deportation of Ukrainian kids. The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (or PACE) labeled the forced transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia as genocide and formed a committee to investigate rights violations against Ukrainian kids by Russia. Despite efforts, thousands of children remain deported. PACE's recent resolution calls for EU recognition of these deportations as genocide of the Ukrainian people. According to Ukraine’s Children of War platform, as of the 6th of January, almost 20,000 children were deported or forcibly relocated to Russia.

On to some good news, as the International Atomic Energy Agency (or IAEA) said on Thursday, the 1st of February, that the release of treated wastewater from Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant into the Pacific Ocean aligns with international safety standards.

Despite the IAEA's findings, China and Hong Kong have banned imports of Japanese seafood since the discharge began, leading to a sharp drop in exports. In South Korea, there have been protests over environmental and safety concerns. Still, scientists have observed that tritium levels in wastewater from China's nuclear plants are higher than those from Fukushima.

More on nuclear energy, as the International Energy Agency (or IEA) projects a record high in global nuclear power generation by twenty twenty-five, driven by an annual growth rate of nearly 3% through twenty twenty-six. Plants in China and India, with additional contributions from South Korea and Europe, have led to this resurgence. France, Japan, the UK, Sweden, and Switzerland are also expanding their nuclear capacities. This growth, part of efforts to reduce emissions, is a response to the twenty twenty-two energy crisis and a shift from the post-Fukushima decline in nuclear energy. Russia and China are increasingly influential in the sector, providing technology for the majority of the new reactors.

Closing with a story to keep an eye on. Tensions are surging as Serbia is seeking an urgent U.N. Security Council meeting due to rising tensions with Kosovo after Kosovo's decision to replace the Serbian dinar with the euro in Serbian-majority areas. Aleksandar Vucic, Serbia’s President, criticized the move as an attempt to ethnically cleanse Serbians from Kosovo, promising to continue supporting Serbians living in Kosovo financially. Most of Kosovo uses the euro, even though it's not part of the EU, while the northern parts, predominantly ethnic Serbians, have been using the dinar. The tense history between Serbia and Kosovo dates back to the nineteen ninety-eight - nineteen ninety-nine war, and Kosovo's two thousand eight declaration of independence, which Serbia doesn't recognize. The EU has warned that ongoing disputes could hinder both countries' EU membership aspirations.

Aand that is for this week.

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